methodatlas
Product Discovery

Experiment Canvas

Moves customer problem, solution idea, and evidence toward a concrete result through "clarify the learning goal and the assumption to test", "formulate the hypothesis as an if-then statement", and "define the decision rule after the test".

Core question
Which assumption are we testing with which experiment, at what threshold is the hypothesis confirmed, and what decision follows from the result?
LowWorkshop + async30-60 min
Purpose

Helps clarify customer problem, solution idea, and evidence in concrete terms. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric.

How it works

The team follows the steps "clarify the learning goal and the assumption to test", "formulate the hypothesis as an if-then statement", "describe the test design and setup", "define the metric and success threshold", "add risks and prerequisites", and "define the decision rule after the test". Each step is made visible. At the end, a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric are available so decisions, tests, or actions can continue directly.

Visual orientation

Method sketch for a quick mental model.

Experiment Canvas · Hypothese, Test, MetrikHypothese, Annahme, Testdesign, Metrik, Erfolgsschwelle und Entscheidungsregel auf einer Canvas-Seite planen
Experiment CanvasDas Visual zeigt ein Experiment Canvas mit Lernziel, Hypothese, riskantester Annahme, Testdesign, Metrik, Schwelle und Entscheidungsregel.Experimente vor dem Test entscheidungsfähig machenDas Canvas zwingt Hypothese, Annahme, Testdesign, Metrik, Schwelle und Entscheidungsregel auf eine gemeinsame Seite.Lernzielwelche Unsicherheit soll kleinerwerden?Experiment CanvasHypotheseWenn … dann …Riskanteste Annahmewas muss wahr sein?Testdesignwie beobachten wir Verhalten?Metrik & Schwellewelches Signal reicht?EntscheidungsregelPersevere, Pivot oder Stop vorabfestlegenVoraussetzungenTraffic, Tracking, Ethik, TimingLernziel zuerstHypothese mit SchwelleEntscheidung vorab

Flow

  1. 1Clarify the learning goal and the assumption to test
  2. 2Formulate the hypothesis as an if-then statement
  3. 3Describe the test design and setup
  4. 4Define the metric and success threshold
  5. 5Add risks and prerequisites
  6. 6Define the decision rule after the test

The runsheet guides execution with 5 phases, timeboxes, 5 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.

Open runsheet

Ideal for

  • Discovery sprints
  • Idea validation
  • Growth hypotheses

Not good for

  • Pure execution tasks without an open hypothesis

Deep dive

In detail

The Experiment Canvas is filled out before every test and usually contains fields for the hypothesis, the riskiest assumption, the test design, the success metric, the threshold, and the learning goal. Common variants come from Ash Maurya and Strategyzer and are widely used in discovery coaching.

Facilitation

Start with the learning goal, not with the test design. Do not accept a hypothesis without a clear threshold.

Output artifacts
Ausgefülltes Experiment CanvasErfolgsmetrik
Tags
Artifact templates
Experiment Canvas Working TemplateCompact working template for Experiment Canvas with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
canvas

experiment-canvas-working-template.md

Compact working template for Experiment Canvas with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.

Experiment Canvas Canvas

Context

What is this method used for?

Core question

Which question should be answered at the end?

Input

Which data, observations, or materials are available?

Working area

  • Area 1:
  • Area 2:
  • Area 3:
  • Relationships / patterns:

Output artifacts

  • Filled Experiment Canvas:
  • Success metric:

Open questions

  • ...

Next step

Owner, date, success signal.

When to choose differently

Short decision aid for existing alternatives.

Riskiest Assumption Test

Statt Experiment Canvas, wenn du mit Riskiest Assumption Test die riskanteste Annahme zuerst unter realen Bedingungen prüfen willst.

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