Purpose
The method helps clarify options, criteria, and risks concretely. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, and a Learning Plan.
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Clarifies options, criteria, and risks by framing the initiative or decision, collecting implicit assumptions, and planning tests or research.
Which implicit assumptions hold up the initiative, and which of them are so important and uncertain that we need to test them before implementation?
LowWorkshop + async45-90 min
How it works
The team follows the steps: frame the initiative or decision, collect implicit assumptions, assess importance and uncertainty, choose critical assumptions, and plan tests or research. Each step is captured visibly. At the end, an Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, and a Learning Plan are available so decisions, tests, or actions can follow directly.
Visual orientation
Method sketch for a quick mental model.
Flow
- 1Frame the initiative or decision
- 2Collect implicit assumptions
- 3Assess importance and uncertainty
- 4Choose critical assumptions
- 5Plan tests or research
The runsheet guides execution with 5 phases, timeboxes, 5 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.
Open runsheetIdeal for
- Product Discovery
- Strategy Work
- Decision Readiness
Not good for
- Routine decisions
- Problems without an action option
Deep dive
In detail
Assumption Surfacing follows a clear working logic: frame the initiative or decision, collect implicit assumptions, assess importance and uncertainty, choose critical assumptions, and plan tests or research. This turns the method into a visible thinking process rather than only a conversation. Participants move step by step from raw material, observations, or options toward a shared structure. The result is an Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, and a Learning Plan that make decisions, learning, or further planning actionable.
Facilitation
Prepare a clear guiding question, the right information, and a visible workspace. Plan about 45-90 min with 2-8 people and use the format either in a workshop or asynchronously. The facilitation stays lightweight; short timeboxes, visible intermediate results, and a parking lot for open questions help.
Output artifacts
Assumption ListCritical AssumptionsLearning Plan
Artifact templates
Assumption Surfacing Working TemplateCompact working template for Assumption Surfacing with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.markdown
Assumption Surfacing Working TemplateCompact working template for Assumption Surfacing with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
markdownassumption-surfacing-working-template.md
Compact working template for Assumption Surfacing with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
Assumption Surfacing Working Template
Goal
Makes implicit assumptions behind ideas, decisions, or strategies visible.
Context
When and for what do we use this method?
Input
Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?
Execution
Short notes along the runsheet.
Output artifacts
- Assumption List:
- Critical Assumptions:
- Learning Plan:
Assumptions and open questions
- ...
Decision / Next step
Owner, date, and success signal.
When to choose differently
Short decision aid for existing alternatives.
Assumption Mapping
Statt Assumption Surfacing, wenn ihr Annahmen sichtbar priorisieren wollt, bevor ihr mit Lösungen startet.
Similar methods
All methodsDecision Making
Pre-Mortem
Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result through defining the initiative, assuming failure, and assigning mitigations.
Decision Making
Risk Matrix
Moves options, criteria, and risks toward a concrete result through "set the scales for likelihood and impact", "collect risks or carry them over from earlier identification", and "define actions for each high-risk item".
Decision Making
Red Teaming
Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by defining scope, clarifying the Red Team role, and deriving mitigations.
Decision Making
Impact Filter
Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by naming an initiative, defining desired impact, and selecting the next smallest step.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Turns customer problems, solution ideas, and evidence into a tangible result through collecting assumptions, rating importance, and planning tests.
Statt Assumption Surfacing, wenn ihr Annahmen sichtbar priorisieren wollt, bevor ihr mit Lösungen startet.
Decision Making
Decision Tree
Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by defining the decision question, collecting options and conditions, and discussing the best path.