methodatlas
Decision Making

Decision Tree

Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by defining the decision question, collecting options and conditions, and discussing the best path.

Core question
Which option or rule emerges when conditions, consequences, and uncertainties are explicitly branched?
MediumWorkshop + async30-90 min
Open runsheetPlan sessionStart comparison
Purpose

The method helps clarify options, criteria, and risks concretely. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a decision tree, option map, and assumption list.

How it works

The team follows the steps: define decision question, collect options and conditions, draw branches and outcomes, add risks or probabilities, and discuss the best path. Each step is captured visibly. At the end, a decision tree, option map, and assumption list are available so decisions, tests, or actions can follow directly.

Visual orientation

Method sketch for a quick mental model.

Decision Tree · Optionen und FolgenAus einer Entscheidungsfrage Optionen, Bedingungen, Risiken und Outcomes als nachvollziehbaren Baum ableiten
Decision TreeDas Visual zeigt eine Entscheidungsfrage mit Optionen, Bedingungen und möglichen Outcomes als verzweigten Baum.Entscheidungspfade und Konsequenzen verzweigenOptionen werden mit Bedingungen verbunden, damit Outcomes und Annahmen nachvollziehbar werden.Option AOption Bwenn jawenn jahochunklarpasstLückeEntscheidungBuild oder Buy?Buildeigene LösungBuyStandardproduktSkaliert?Kapazität vorhandenFit?passt zu ProzessenCustom PathDifferenzierung hochPilotAnnahmen testenVendor PathTime-to-market kurzHybridLücke gezielt bauen

Flow

  1. 1Define decision question
  2. 2Collect options and conditions
  3. 3Draw branches and outcomes
  4. 4Add risks or probabilities
  5. 5Discuss best path

The runsheet guides execution with 5 phases, timeboxes, 5 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.

Open runsheet

Ideal for

  • Option evaluation
  • Policy design
  • Product or process logic

Not good for

  • Broad strategy questions without criteria
  • Creative ideation

Deep dive

In detail

Decision Tree follows a clear working logic: define decision question, collect options and conditions, draw branches and outcomes, add risks or probabilities, and discuss the best path. This turns the method into a visible thinking process instead of only a discussion. Participants move step by step from raw material, observations, or options toward a shared structure. As a result, a decision tree, option map, and assumption list support decisions, learning, and planning.

Facilitation

Prepare a clear guiding question, the right information, and a visible workspace. Plan for 30-90 min with 1-6 people and use the format in either a workshop or asynchronously. The facilitation needs structure and preparation; short timeboxes, visible intermediate results, and a parking lot for open questions are helpful.

Output artifacts
Decision TreeOption MapAssumption List
Tags
decisiontreelogicoptions

Sources

What is a Decision Tree? | IBMibm.comDecision tree - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
Artifact templates
Decision Tree Working TemplateCompact working template for Decision Tree with decision question, branches, outcomes, and recommendation.
canvas

decision-tree-working-template.md

Compact working template for Decision Tree with decision question, branches, outcomes, and recommendation.

Decision Tree Working Template

Goal

Map options, conditions, and outcomes so the decision becomes explicit.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Working area

  • Decision question:
  • Options:
  • Conditions:
  • Branches and outcomes:
  • Risks and probabilities:

Output artifacts

  • Decision tree:
  • Option map:
  • Assumption list:

Open questions

  • ...

Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

When to choose differently

Short decision aid for existing alternatives.

Decision Matrix

Statt Decision Tree, wenn mehrere Optionen nach gemeinsamen Kriterien bewertet werden sollen und keine verzweigten Folgepfade nötig sind.

Similar methods

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Trade-off Analysis

Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by framing the decision, collecting options, and documenting trade-offs and the decision.

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Argument Mapping

Clarifies options, criteria, and risks by framing the central question, recording the main claim, and marking weak spots.

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OODA Loop

Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by observing the situation, interpreting signals and context, and reviewing the effect of each cycle.

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Option Framing

Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by collecting rough options, consolidating them, and creating a comparable shortlist.

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Red Teaming

Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by defining scope, clarifying the Red Team role, and deriving mitigations.

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Decision Matrix

Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by listing options, defining criteria, and checking result and sensitivity.

Statt Decision Tree, wenn mehrere Optionen nach gemeinsamen Kriterien bewertet werden sollen und keine verzweigten Folgepfade nötig sind.