methodatlas
Decision Making

Pre-Mortem

Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result through defining the initiative, assuming failure, and assigning mitigations.

Core question
What reasons could cause the initiative to fail, and which mitigations can we build in now to reduce these risks?
LowWorkshop20-45 min
Open runsheetPlan sessionStart comparison
Purpose

The method helps clarify options, criteria, and risks concretely. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The outcome is captured as a risk list, mitigation plan, and assumption log.

How it works

The team follows the steps: define the initiative, assume failure, collect reasons, cluster risks, and assign mitigations. Each step is captured visibly. At the end, a risk list, mitigation plan, and assumption log are available so decisions, tests, or actions can follow directly.

Visual orientation

Method sketch for a quick mental model.

Pre-Mortem · Gary KleinThe team imagines failure, collects causes, and translates them into prevention
Pre-MortemThe visual shows the mental jump from today's plan into a failed future scenario, derived causes, and countermeasures.Play through failure in advanceA fictional failure makes hidden risks speakable before they become expensive in the project.mental jumpWhy?assessfeed prevention back into the planTodayplan exists, assumptionsare still implicitFuture: failedthe project clearly went wrongPrioritize risksrealistic, large, influenceableCountermeasuresdefine trigger, owner, andearly warning signalCause 1dependency overlookedCause 2user need misreadCause 3decision too late

Flow

  1. 1Define initiative
  2. 2Assume failure
  3. 3Collect reasons
  4. 4Cluster risks
  5. 5Assign mitigations

The runsheet guides execution with 5 phases, timeboxes, 5 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.

Open runsheet

Ideal for

  • Launch planning
  • Strategic initiatives
  • High-uncertainty projects

Not good for

  • Routine tasks
  • Pure ideation

Deep dive

In detail

A pre-mortem follows a clear working logic: define the initiative, assume failure, collect reasons, cluster risks, and assign mitigations. This turns the method into a visible thinking process rather than only a conversation. Participants move step by step from raw material, observations, or options toward a shared structure. The result is a risk list, mitigation plan, and assumption log that makes decisions, learning, or further planning actionable.

Facilitation

Prepare a clear prompt, the right information, and a visible workspace. Plan about 20-45 minutes with 4-10 people and use the format in a facilitated workshop. The facilitation stays lightweight; short timeboxes, visible intermediate results, and a parking lot for open questions help.

Output artifacts
Risk listMitigation planAssumption log
Tags
riskdecisionfailureplanning

Sources

How to Run Pre-Mortem Exercises | Atlassianatlassian.comPre-mortem | Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
Artifact templates
Pre-Mortem Working TemplateCompact working template for Pre-Mortem with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
markdown

pre-mortem-working-template.md

Compact working template for Pre-Mortem with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.

Pre-Mortem Working Template

Goal

Imagines future failure to identify risks in advance.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Execution

Short notes along the runsheet.

Output artifacts

  • Risk List:
  • Mitigation Plan:
  • Assumption Log:

Assumptions and open questions

  • ...

Decision / Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

When to choose differently

Short decision aid for existing alternatives.

Scenario Planning

Statt Pre-Mortem, wenn ihr mit mehreren Zukunftsbildern arbeiten wollt, statt nur einen Verlauf zu planen.

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