methodatlas
Method guideDecision Making

Assumption Surfacing

A practical method guide: clarify prerequisites and materials, understand the complete process, and look up outputs, pitfalls, and stop criteria.

ComplexityLow
Time45-90 min
Participants2-8
FormatWorkshop + async
MaturityEstablished
Plan
01

Prerequisite

What needs to be finished first

Complete firstConcrete initiative

The audience, desired outcome and solution or strategy under review are named.

If the scope is too broad, select one decision object first.
Complete firstEvidence access

Existing data and people for potential tests are known.

Without a path to learning, prioritisation has no effect.
02

Preparation

What needs to be ready before start

Materials

Decision or concept sketch, existing research, assumption cards and an impact-uncertainty matrix.

People / roles

Initiative owner, domain experts for value, feasibility and operations, plus a facilitator.

Pre-read

Audience, desired outcome, solution idea, commercial and operational conditions and available evidence.

Time needed

60–90 minutes for surfacing and prioritisation; tests follow separately

Setup

Prepare collection areas for desirability, viability, feasibility and usability plus a prioritisation matrix.

03

Core question

The one question this method answers

Which unproven assumption would endanger the initiative most if it were false?

04

Flow

Phases with goal, actions, output and pitfall

Assumption Surfacing identifies statements that must be true for an initiative to succeed. The team separates assumptions from evidence, scores impact and uncertainty, then selects the riskiest assumptions for testing.

Assumption Surfacing · Risk Matrix

Fictional example

The table separates assumption, evidence, impact, uncertainty and next learning move.

Assumption Surfacing · Risk Matrix
ItemAssumptionEvidence statusImpactUncertaintyNext test
A-07State a falsifiable assumption and add scores plus the learning move.60% of weekend visitors want audio on their own phone.No direct evidence5/5: production decision affected5/5: internal belief only30 interviews plus QR prototype; threshold 18 interested and 25% starts

  1. 1. Assumption

    A-07
    60% of weekend visitors want audio on their own phone.

  2. 2. Evidence status

    A-07
    No direct evidence

  3. 3. Impact

    A-07
    5/5: production decision affected

  4. 4. Uncertainty

    A-07
    5/5: internal belief only

  5. 5. Next test

    A-07
    30 interviews plus QR prototype; threshold 18 interested and 25% starts

Scores are fictional judgements on a 1–5 scale, not measured values.

RAND: Assumption-Based Planning

  1. 1

    Frame

    Bound the initiative

    Goal

    Shared test frame

    Inputs for this step

    • Initiative sketch
    • Goal and decision

    Actions

    • Describe what outcome should occur for whom.
    • Record success criteria, time horizon and fixed constraints.

    Output

    Test frame

    Initiative, success, scope and decision

    Quality check

    Is it clear what could change if an assumption is false?

    Pitfall

    Participants are evaluating different initiatives. Fix one outcome and one variant as the scope.

    Timing: 10–15 minutes

  2. 2

    Surface

    State assumptions

    Goal

    Broad assumption register

    Inputs for this step

    • Test frame
    • Value, business, technical and operational perspectives

    Actions

    • Complete “We believe that …” or “For this to work …” statements.
    • Put one statement on each card and link existing evidence separately.

    Output

    Assumption cards

    Statement, category and current evidence

    Quality check

    Could observable evidence disprove the statement? Does each card contain one assumption?

    Pitfall

    Opinions are phrased as established facts. Name the evidence or mark the statement as an assumption.

    Timing: 20–25 minutes

  3. 3

    Score

    Score the risk

    Goal

    Risk matrix

    Inputs for this step

    • Assumption cards
    • Existing evidence

    Actions

    • Score impact and uncertainty for every assumption on the same scale.
    • Attach evidence or rationale and retain visible disagreement.

    Output

    Scored assumption matrix

    Impact, uncertainty and rationale

    Quality check

    Were impact and uncertainty scored independently? Is high confidence backed by evidence?

    Pitfall

    Hierarchy or volume replaces evidence. Collect individual ratings and resolve differences through evidence.

    Timing: 15–20 minutes

  4. 4

    Prioritise

    Select critical assumptions

    Goal

    Focused learning agenda

    Inputs for this step

    • Scored matrix
    • Time and decision need

    Actions

    • Review assumptions in the high-high area and mark dependencies.
    • Choose a small set whose resolution would change a real decision.

    Output

    Prioritised assumptions

    Rank, decision link and owner

    Quality check

    Would a negative result trigger a change? Is the set small enough for the next learning cycle?

    Pitfall

    Easy tests displace consequential assumptions. Prioritise decision risk before ease of testing.

    Timing: 10–15 minutes

  5. 5

    Test

    Define the learning move

    Goal

    Executable test plan

    Inputs for this step

    • Prioritised assumptions
    • Access to data or participants

    Actions

    • Choose the smallest suitable observation, analysis or experiment.
    • Set expected signal, decision threshold, owner and date in advance.

    Output

    Assumption test plan

    Method, signal, threshold, owner and consequence

    Quality check

    Does the test address exactly one assumption? Are responses to support and disproof predetermined?

    Pitfall

    The test gathers feedback without a decision threshold. Define which result triggers which action before starting.

    Timing: 15–20 minutes

05

Artifact

What comes out at the end

Sketch: what the artifact looks like

Assumption Surfacing · Exposure MapImplizite Annahmen rund um ein Vorhaben sichtbar machen und in Lernfragen übersetzen
Assumption Surfacing Exposure MapDie Skizze zeigt ein Vorhaben, ein Radar aus impliziten und expliziten Annahmen, kritische Annahmen und daraus abgeleitete Lernschritte.Implizite Annahmen sichtbar und prüfbar machenRund um ein Vorhaben werden verdeckte Vermutungen gesammelt, expliziert und in Lernfragen übersetzt.VORHABENVERDECKTE ANNAHMENKRITISCH PRÜFENNeue InitiativeKlarheit schaffenEntscheidungWas muss wahr sein?NutzerMarktMachbarkeitOrganisationDatenInterviewNutzerannahmeRechercheMarktsignalExperimentMachbarkeitunklarzu wenig Evidenzentscheidendhoher EinflussprüfenLernschritt planen
Form

Prioritised assumption register with statement, category, evidence status, impact, uncertainty, test and owner.

Versioning / ownership

Give every assumption a stable ID; append dated tests, evidence, status and decision consequences.

Tool alternatives
  • Assumption cards
  • Impact-uncertainty matrix
  • Experiment or research backlog

assumption-surfacing-working-template.md

Bound the initiative and success so participants can complete the sentence “For this to work, it must be true that …”.

Assumption Surfacing: Worksheet

Question

To be confirmed

Desired outcome

To be confirmed

Scope

Complete workflow Time: 60–90 minutes for surfacing and prioritisation; tests follow separately

Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.

Preparation for this scope

Method setup

  • Materials: Decision or concept sketch, existing research, assumption cards and an impact-uncertainty matrix.
  • Roles: Initiative owner, domain experts for value, feasibility and operations, plus a facilitator.
  • Advance information: Audience, desired outcome, solution idea, commercial and operational conditions and available evidence.
  • Overall time needed: 60–90 minutes for surfacing and prioritisation; tests follow separately
  • Setup: Prepare collection areas for desirability, viability, feasibility and usability plus a prioritisation matrix.

Prepare for the work steps

Frame: Bound the initiative

  • Initiative sketch
  • Goal and decision

Surface: State assumptions

  • Test frame
  • Value, business, technical and operational perspectives

Score: Score the risk

  • Assumption cards
  • Existing evidence

Prioritise: Select critical assumptions

  • Scored matrix
  • Time and decision need

Test: Define the learning move

  • Prioritised assumptions
  • Access to data or participants

Assumption Surfacing · Risk Matrix

ItemAssumptionAvailable evidenceImpact if falseUncertaintyTest, threshold and consequence
A-07
  • A-07: State a falsifiable assumption and add scores plus the learning move.

Use one assumption per row. Justify impact and uncertainty separately; examples stay out of the blank worksheet.

RAND: Assumption-Based Planning

Frame: Bound the initiative

Expected artifact: Test frame

Initiative, success, scope and decision

Entry:

...

  • Is it clear what could change if an assumption is false?

Surface: State assumptions

Expected artifact: Assumption cards

Statement, category and current evidence

Entry:

...

  • Could observable evidence disprove the statement?
  • Does each card contain one assumption?

Score: Score the risk

Expected artifact: Scored assumption matrix

Impact, uncertainty and rationale

Entry:

...

  • Were impact and uncertainty scored independently?
  • Is high confidence backed by evidence?

Prioritise: Select critical assumptions

Expected artifact: Prioritised assumptions

Rank, decision link and owner

Entry:

...

  • Would a negative result trigger a change?
  • Is the set small enough for the next learning cycle?

Test: Define the learning move

Expected artifact: Assumption test plan

Method, signal, threshold, owner and consequence

Entry:

...

  • Does the test address exactly one assumption?
  • Are responses to support and disproof predetermined?

Open questions and next steps

...

Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/assumption-surfacing/run-sheet

06

Example output

Concrete filled scenario, fictional example

Fictional example for orientation. Counts and timings describe this case and are not universal requirements.

assumption-surfacing-beispiel.md

Concrete filled scenario, fictional example

Fictional example

Initiative: Museum app for self-guided special exhibitions.

Assumption A-07: At least 60% of weekend visitors want explanations on their own phone. Category: desirability. Impact: high. Uncertainty: high. Current evidence: none.

Test: Interview 30 visitors at the exit and observe a QR prototype at the entrance. Threshold: At least 18 of 30 express interest and at least 25% of approached visitors start the prototype. Consequence: Below both thresholds, do not commission audio production; investigate the need and access barrier. Owner: Nila, due 15 October.

07

Pitfalls

Recognize symptoms and steer against them

Quick overview, the full text is in the matching phase in the flow

  1. Bound the initiativeParticipants are evaluating different initiatives.View in phase
  2. State assumptionsOpinions are phrased as established facts.View in phase
  3. Score the riskHierarchy or volume replaces evidence.View in phase
  4. Select critical assumptionsEasy tests displace consequential assumptions.View in phase
  5. Define the learning moveThe test gathers feedback without a decision threshold.View in phase
08

Stop criteria

When to pause, resolve prerequisites, or choose another approach

The initiative and success are too vague for falsifiable statements.
There is no access to evidence and no responsible decision consequence for prioritised assumptions.

Where to go next?

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test

Runs the planned learning step for the riskiest assumption.

Growth Experiment workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
Growth Experiment

Turns the assumption test plan into a measurable experiment.

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