methodatlas
Session Builder

Plan my session

Plan a concrete work block with agenda, roles, preparation, and a copyable result artifact.

Method session45-90 minWorkshop or asyncAssumption List

Session: Assumption Surfacing

The plan translates the method into a concrete facilitated work block. Your inputs flow directly into the session brief and work artifact.

Derived automatically

Method session with 2-8. The plan uses the existing method logic and the runsheet.

Runsheet
Participation logic
Team round, shared work and alignment

Use the session for shared understanding. Contributions are collected visibly, assumptions are aligned, and open differences remain traceable in the artifact.

Outcome logic
Finish artifact

The session works directly toward Assumption List. After the session, the artifact should be shareable, reviewable, or reusable.

  1. 1

    Phase 1: Clarify the initiative

    5-10 min

    Read the initiative or decision aloud and clear up misunderstandings. Agree on one sentence that will not change for the rest of the workshop. Hint: If the initiative still changes during the workshop, the set of assumptions changes with it. Fix it first.

    FacilitatorAssumption List
  2. 2

    Phase 2: Collect assumptions

    20-30 min

    For each category (users, market, technology, business model, organization), do 5 min of solo writing, then place the notes on the board. Aim for at least three assumptions per category. Hint: Assumptions often start with 'of course', 'naturally', or 'everyone knows'. Saying those phrases out loud helps reveal them.

    FacilitatorCritical Assumptions
  3. 3

    Phase 3: Rate importance and uncertainty

    15-20 min

    For each assumption, make two ratings: how important if wrong (1-5)? How uncertain (1-5)? Place the assumptions in the grid. Mark the top quadrant (high x high). Hint: Uncertain is not the same as unknown. If we believe it is true but do not have evidence, it is uncertain. Gut feeling is not evidence.

    FacilitatorLearning Plan
  4. 4

    Phase 4: Choose critical assumptions

    10-15 min

    Select the top 3 assumptions from the 'important and uncertain' quadrant. For each one, ask: what would we do if it were false? Hint: If the answer is 'then the initiative fails', testing before implementation is mandatory. If the answer is 'then we adapt', testing is useful but not mandatory.

    FacilitatorAssumption List
  5. 5

    Phase 5: Learning plan

    10-15 min

    Choose one test per critical assumption: interview, smoke test, data analysis, spike, expert review. Note owner, date, and success criterion. Hint: Tests must be cheaper than being wrong about the assumption. Anyone proposing a 6-week pilot for an assumption that could be tested in a 30-minute interview is optimizing badly.

    OwnerCritical Assumptions
  6. 6

    Publish artifact

    10 min

    Check the artifact for completeness, define location, set version or status, and name review recipients.

    OwnerAssumption List
Usable artifact

Session Brief

For invitations, boards, tickets, PR descriptions, or workshop notes.

session-brief.md

Session Brief: Assumption Surfacing

Goal

Artifact: Assumption List

Working Question

Which implicit assumptions hold up the initiative, and which of them are so important and uncertain that we need to test them before implementation?

Context

Initiative in one sentence; existing arguments and rationales; known data or research; time horizon and budget for assumption tests.

Setup

  • Format: Method session
  • Duration: 45-90 min
  • Mode: Workshop or async
  • Participants: One facilitator who separates assumptions sharply and leads the rating; two to eight participants with different perspectives; one scribe for the learning plan.
  • Owner: One facilitator who separates assumptions sharply and leads the rating
  • Participation mode: Team round, shared work and alignment
  • Outcome logic: Finish artifact

Participation Logic

Use the session for shared understanding. Contributions are collected visibly, assumptions are aligned, and open differences remain traceable in the artifact.

Outcome Logic

The session works directly toward Assumption List. After the session, the artifact should be shareable, reviewable, or reusable.

Input

Whiteboard or Miro board with a two-axis grid (importance, uncertainty); sticky notes; pens; timer; prepared list of typical assumption categories (users, market, technology, business model, organization).

Preparation

Put the initiative at the top of the board. Prepare the two-axis grid (X: uncertainty, Y: importance). Make the assumption categories visible. Rule: an assumption is anything we believe without knowing.

Agenda

  1. Phase 1: Clarify the initiative (5-10 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Read the initiative or decision aloud and clear up misunderstandings. Agree on one sentence that will not change for the rest of the workshop. Hint: If the initiative still changes during the workshop, the set of assumptions changes with it. Fix it first. Output: Assumption List

  2. Phase 2: Collect assumptions (20-30 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: For each category (users, market, technology, business model, organization), do 5 min of solo writing, then place the notes on the board. Aim for at least three assumptions per category. Hint: Assumptions often start with 'of course', 'naturally', or 'everyone knows'. Saying those phrases out loud helps reveal them. Output: Critical Assumptions

  3. Phase 3: Rate importance and uncertainty (15-20 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: For each assumption, make two ratings: how important if wrong (1-5)? How uncertain (1-5)? Place the assumptions in the grid. Mark the top quadrant (high x high). Hint: Uncertain is not the same as unknown. If we believe it is true but do not have evidence, it is uncertain. Gut feeling is not evidence. Output: Learning Plan

  4. Phase 4: Choose critical assumptions (10-15 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Select the top 3 assumptions from the 'important and uncertain' quadrant. For each one, ask: what would we do if it were false? Hint: If the answer is 'then the initiative fails', testing before implementation is mandatory. If the answer is 'then we adapt', testing is useful but not mandatory. Output: Assumption List

  5. Phase 5: Learning plan (10-15 min) Owner: Owner Action: Choose one test per critical assumption: interview, smoke test, data analysis, spike, expert review. Note owner, date, and success criterion. Hint: Tests must be cheaper than being wrong about the assumption. Anyone proposing a 6-week pilot for an assumption that could be tested in a 30-minute interview is optimizing badly. Output: Critical Assumptions

  6. Publish artifact (10 min) Owner: Owner Action: Check the artifact for completeness, define location, set version or status, and name review recipients. Output: Assumption List

Closeout

  • Update result artifact: Assumption List
  • Define location, version, and review recipients.
  • Define owner, next step, and review date.
Usable artifact

Work artifact

Pre-filled starting point based on the matching template.

work-artifact.md

Assumption List: Assumption Surfacing

Working Question

Which implicit assumptions hold up the initiative, and which of them are so important and uncertain that we need to test them before implementation?

Context

Initiative in one sentence; existing arguments and rationales; known data or research; time horizon and budget for assumption tests.

Participants

  • Owner: One facilitator who separates assumptions sharply and leads the rating
  • Participants: One facilitator who separates assumptions sharply and leads the rating; two to eight participants with different perspectives; one scribe for the learning plan.

Input

Whiteboard or Miro board with a two-axis grid (importance, uncertainty); sticky notes; pens; timer; prepared list of typical assumption categories (users, market, technology, business model, organization).

Template

Assumption Surfacing Working Template

Goal

Makes implicit assumptions behind ideas, decisions, or strategies visible.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Execution

Short notes along the runsheet.

Output artifacts

  • Assumption List:
  • Critical Assumptions:
  • Learning Plan:

Assumptions and open questions

  • ...

Decision / Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

Completion Check

  • Assumption List is complete enough for review:
  • Location:
  • Version / status:
  • Review by:
  • Next step:

Next Step

  • Review result
  • Mark open questions
  • Schedule review or decision
Template base

Assumption Surfacing Working Template

View templateCompact working template for Assumption Surfacing with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
markdown

assumption-surfacing-working-template.md

Compact working template for Assumption Surfacing with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.

Assumption Surfacing Working Template

Goal

Makes implicit assumptions behind ideas, decisions, or strategies visible.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Execution

Short notes along the runsheet.

Output artifacts

  • Assumption List:
  • Critical Assumptions:
  • Learning Plan:

Assumptions and open questions

  • ...

Decision / Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

Ready to use when
  • Working question, owner, and target artifact are visible.
  • The result fits Assumption List.
  • One entry per initiative with date. After each assumption test, update the assumption status: confirmed, disproved, or modified. Keep old assumptions and set a status instead of deleting them.
  • Open questions are noted as follow-ups.
  • The next review or decision point is scheduled.
ProfileRunsheet