Purpose
When opportunities need ranking by their effect, it makes importance and satisfaction directly comparable. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as an opportunity-score table and top outcomes.
Product Discovery Decision method
Opportunity Scoring
Prioritizes solution-neutral outcomes through importance and current satisfaction.
Opportunity Scoring evaluates desired outcomes, not features. Importance and satisfaction are collected as top-two-box percentages in the same segment; formula, sample, and uncertainty remain visible.
Which important user outcomes are currently underserved in the target segment?
- Participants
- 3-6
- Time
- 60-120 min
Opportunity Scoring uses solution-neutral outcome statements plus separate importance and satisfaction ratings. Assessments remain justified and context-bound.
Define outcomes
Define outcomes
Break the user job into solution-neutral measurable outcome statements.
Survey segment
Survey segment
Recruit the target segment and collect importance and satisfaction separately on the same scale and aggregate top-two-box percentages.
Calculate score
Calculate score
Apply the formula consistently and show uncertainty and segment effects.
Prioritise
Prioritise
Turn top outcomes into discovery questions without preselecting solutions.
Re-survey for a new segment or market and retain prior versions.
A good fit when
Useful with a validated user job and multiple outcomes; do not treat small convenience samples as market proof.
Ideal for
- Outcome-driven innovation
- B2B discovery
- Roadmap refresh
Not good for
- Pure feature backlogs without outcome clarity
Outputs
opportunity ranking
opportunity ranking with traceable sources, assumptions, and domain decisions.
Decision and review trail
Owners, dates, and next review for opportunity ranking.
opportunity ranking
Fictional worked example
solution-neutral outcome statements plus separate importance and satisfaction ratings as a precise working structure with a fictional example.
| Outcome | Outcome statement | Segment and sample | Importance | Satisfaction | Opportunity and next question |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Find an actionWorked example | Minimise time until an action with owner can be found. | 86 project leads; ≥2 reviews/month. | 84% of 86 respondents. | 37% of 86 respondents. | 131; next interview on retrieval. |
1. Outcome statement
- Find an action
- Minimise time until an action with owner can be found.
2. Segment and sample
- Find an action
- 86 project leads; ≥2 reviews/month.
3. Importance
- Find an action
- 84% of 86 respondents.
4. Satisfaction
- Find an action
- 37% of 86 respondents.
5. Opportunity and next question
- Find an action
- 131; next interview on retrieval.
The example demonstrates the domain logic of Opportunity Scoring; worksheets remain blank.
First step
Start with the core question: Which important user outcomes are currently underserved in the target segment?
Good to do first
Deep dive
How it works
It scores outcomes with a uniform scoring system and sorts the most interesting gaps to the top. Importance and satisfaction are read together so that underserved needs do not disappear behind louder ideas.
In detail
Opportunity Scoring, shaped by Anthony Ulwick in the context of Outcome-Driven Innovation, asks for each outcome how important it is to customers and how satisfied they are today. The gap between the two becomes the Opportunity Score. Areas with high importance and low satisfaction create the strongest leverage.
Facilitation
Write outcomes in customer language. Define the scale steps clearly. Base ratings on real interviews, not assumptions.
The method guide walks execution through 4 phases, timing, 4 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.
Open method guideYour perspective
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Sources and topics
Artifact templates
Opportunity Scoring: WorksheetPlan Opportunity Scoring around its domain steps and the concrete decision question.markdown
Opportunity Scoring: WorksheetPlan Opportunity Scoring around its domain steps and the concrete decision question.
markdownopportunity-scoring-working-template.md
Plan Opportunity Scoring around its domain steps and the concrete decision question.
Opportunity Scoring: Worksheet
Question
To be confirmed
Desired outcome
To be confirmed
Scope
Full workshop Time: 60 minutes design; survey separate; 45 minutes analysis
Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.
Preparation for this scope
Method setup
- Materials: Validated user job, Outcome statements, Segmented survey data, shared workspace, source links, and decision log.
- Roles: Research · Product · domain expert · Analytics
- Advance information: Collect Validated user job, Outcome statements, Segmented survey data in advance and mark open assumptions.
- Overall time needed: 60 minutes design; survey separate; 45 minutes analysis
- Setup: Prepare solution-neutral outcome statements plus separate importance and satisfaction ratings visibly and calibrate assessment terms before starting.
Prepare for the work steps
Define outcomes: Define outcomes
- Validated user job
- Outcome statements
- Segmented survey data
Survey segment: Survey segment
- outcome list
- Outcome statements
- Segmented survey data
Calculate score: Calculate score
- survey data
- Outcome statements
- Segmented survey data
Prioritise: Prioritise
- opportunity scores
- Outcome statements
- Segmented survey data
opportunity ranking
| Outcome | Direction · measure · context | Audience · n · recruitment | Top-two-box share · n · confidence interval | Top-two-box share · n · confidence interval | I + max(I−S,0) · score · uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Find an action |
- Find an action: Worked example
Enter only real input, sources, and decisions.
Strategyn: Outcome-Driven Innovation
Define outcomes: Define outcomes
Expected artifact: outcome list
outcome list · source · uncertainty · next decision
Entry:
...
- Does every statement contain direction, measure, and context without a solution?
Survey segment: Survey segment
Expected artifact: survey data
survey data · source · uncertainty · next decision
Entry:
...
- Are segment, recruitment, and scale documented?
Calculate score: Calculate score
Expected artifact: opportunity scores
opportunity scores · source · uncertainty · next decision
Entry:
...
- Are values comparable within the same sample and scale?
Prioritise: Prioritise
Expected artifact: opportunity backlog
opportunity backlog · source · uncertainty · next decision
Entry:
...
- Does priority remain on the outcome rather than a favourite feature?
Open questions and next steps
...
Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/opportunity-scoring/run-sheet
Alternatives and neighbors
Fitting alternatives with decision guidance, followed by other related methods.
Product Strategy
ICE Scoring
Instead of Opportunity Scoring, choose ICE Scoring when you want to quickly sort ideas by impact, confidence, and ease.
Product Discovery
Outcome-Driven Innovation
Quantifies customer desired outcomes for a job and identifies underserved needs as innovation opportunities.
Product Discovery
Kano Model
Classifies features by their effect on satisfaction, showing which expectations create basic, performance, or delight response.
Product Discovery
Opportunity Interview
Clarifies customer problems, solution ideas, and evidence by framing an opportunity hypothesis, recruiting participants, and turning insights into opportunities.
Product Discovery
Problem Interview
Clarifies customer problems, solution ideas, and evidence by framing problem hypotheses, recruiting the target group, and assessing problem risk.
Product Discovery
Hypothesis Prioritization Canvas
Moves customer problem, solution idea, and evidence toward a concrete result through "take over the hypothesis list", "define the risk scale", and "select the top hypotheses for the next tests".
Constraints and origin
MediumWorkshop + async60-120 min
Profile
- Method form
- Decision method
- Participants
- 3-6
- Time
- 60-120 min
- Maturity
- Established
- Origin
- Tony Ulwick
Next up: Opportunity Solution Tree