Agile Decision method
Uses throughput and cycle time for forecasts instead of point estimates and regularly calibrates planning against reality.
Sie reduziert den Bedarf an Vorabschätzung und steuert Arbeit über kleine, gleichmäßige Einheiten und sichtbaren Fluss. So sinkt Aufwand im Planning, während Lieferfähigkeit und Transparenz erhalten bleiben und Engpässe schneller auffallen.
How can the team make planning and delivery decisions with small work items, flow data, and frequent reforecasting without estimating every item upfront?
Preparation, execution, and learning cycles form a multi-stage initiative.
Purpose
Set which decisions will be supported without item estimates and define service boundary.
Slice
Shape work into small valuable items with one Done and explicit split policy.
Control
Operate pull, WIP limits, replenishment, and blocker policy; reprioritise scope continuously.
Measure
Capture throughput, cycle time, WIP, and item age from consistent start/Done events.
Forecast
Forecast remaining count probabilistically from historical flow and test scope/WIP scenarios.
Learn
Compare forecast to actual, decide scope/policies, and justify new data window after system change.
Add new evidence at review and version estimates with the prior state.
Wenn Schätzung mehr bremst als nützt, lenkt sie den Fokus auf Fluss, Kleinteiligkeit und echte Durchlaufzeit. Sie ersetzt Vorhersagezwang durch ein Arbeitsmodell, das schneller liefert.
Operable NoEstimates system with small items, pull/WIP rules, replenishment, flow metrics, probabilistic forecasts, and scope decisions.
Fictional example
Fictional values show the actual method fields.
| System element | Policy/data | Fictional state | Decision signal | Action | Owner | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Item slicingAdd evidence and rationale. | Split policy | Valuable; one Done; provider migration in 4 items | Item age >8 days | Split before pull | Product + team | Replenishment |
| WIP/pullAdd evidence and rationale. | Pull policy | Limit 4; pull only with free slot | Blocked >2 days | Assign swarm owner | Flow manager | Daily |
| Flow dataAdd evidence and rationale. | 12-week window | Throughput 5,7,4,6,8,5,0,7,6,4,9,5 | Zero week remains a sample | Record cause; retain value | Data owner | Weekly |
| ForecastAdd evidence and rationale. | Date for quantity | 30 items: P50 6, P85 7, P95 8 weeks | P85 drifts beyond 8 weeks | Decide scope/WIP | Service owner | Weekly |
All values are fictional.
Close decision need, service boundary, and Done; slice work so items flow comparably; check historical data quality.
When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules.
It reduces the need for upfront estimation and steers work through small, uniform units and visible flow. This lowers effort in planning while delivery capability and transparency are preserved and bottlenecks stand out sooner.
NoEstimates is less a single technique than a counterposition to elaborate effort estimation. The approach asks which decision a estimate actually supports and whether that same decision can be made better through smaller items, historical throughput data, or continuous learning. Instead of producing story points, work is sliced as similarly small as possible and observed through flow metrics. Forecasts come from completed work and probabilities, not from estimated effort.
First clarify which planning decision needs to be answered. Invest in slicing, flow metrics, and transparent assumptions. Avoid dogmatic debates; sometimes a light estimate is cheaper than building a heavy data foundation.
The method guide walks execution through 6 phases, timing, 6 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.
Open method guideYour perspective
Your feedback helps shape the next improvements to methodatlas.
Set subject, data, roles, flow, and review.
To be confirmed
To be confirmed
Whole initiative Time: Half-day setup plus weekly replenishment, flow, and forecast reviews.
Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.
| System element | Policy/data | Fictional state | Decision signal | Action | Owner | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Item slicing | ||||||
| WIP/pull | ||||||
| Flow data | ||||||
| Forecast |
The blank worksheet contains prompts only.
Reference · original teaching example
Expected artifact: Planning question
Set which decisions will be supported without item estimates and define service boundary.
Entry:
...
Expected artifact: Flowable items
Shape work into small valuable items with one Done and explicit split policy.
Entry:
...
Expected artifact: Flow system
Operate pull, WIP limits, replenishment, and blocker policy; reprioritise scope continuously.
Entry:
...
Expected artifact: Flow data
Capture throughput, cycle time, WIP, and item age from consistent start/Done events.
Entry:
...
Expected artifact: Delivery forecast
Forecast remaining count probabilistically from historical flow and test scope/WIP scenarios.
Entry:
...
Expected artifact: Flow decision
Compare forecast to actual, decide scope/policies, and justify new data window after system change.
Entry:
...
...
Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/no-estimates/run-sheet
Fitting alternatives with decision guidance, followed by other related methods.
Instead of NoEstimates, choose Story Points when you want to estimate relative complexity instead of calendar time and calibrate your estimation as a team.
Instead of NoEstimates, choose Planning Poker when your environment still needs estimation signals and relative sizes must be calibrated across the team.
Product Backlog, Sprint Goal, Increment, and retrospective loops create a repeatable cadence for complex product work.
Moves backlog, sprint work, and team flow toward a concrete result through "explain the ideal day unit", "calibrate with a reference item", and "do not confuse it with calendar days".
Sorts backlog items roughly by reference sizes and flags early on which items will later need splitting or clarification.
Has the team group items silently, discusses deviations, and produces consistent relative size pictures.
