Bundles expert estimates across rounds until ranges, consensus, and assumptions become solid enough.
Core question: What share of our customers will require digital evidence by the end of 2028?
Decision methodMethod form: Decision method. Describes how this method is used in practice.HighComplexity: high. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.AsyncFormat: async. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.
1-4 Wochen
6-30 Experten
Details
Decision MakingCategory: Decision Making. Describes the method's domain of use.
Moves options, criteria, and risks toward a concrete result through "clarify the estimate object and unit", "collect independent estimates", and "document another round and the outcome".
Core question: What estimate range emerges when experts first estimate independently, compare assumptions anonymously, and re-estimate with new information?
Decision methodMethod form: Decision method. Describes how this method is used in practice.HighComplexity: high. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.Workshop + asyncFormat: workshop or async. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.
1-4 h or multiple rounds
4-12 Experten
Details
Decision MakingCategory: Decision Making. Describes the method's domain of use.
Moves options, criteria, and risks toward a concrete result through "clarify the estimate object", "determine the optimistic value", and "derive the range, expected value, and risks".
Core question: What range and triangular expected value follow from a plausible optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic scenario?
Decision methodMethod form: Decision method. Describes how this method is used in practice.MediumComplexity: medium. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.Workshop + asyncFormat: workshop or async. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.
10-30 min je Item
1-8
Details
AgileCategory: Agile. Describes the method's domain of use.
Moves backlog, sprint work, and team flow toward a concrete result through "clarify the planning question", "slice work smaller", and "calibrate regularly with reality".
Core question: How can the team make planning and delivery decisions with small work items, flow data, and frequent reforecasting without estimating every item upfront?
Decision methodMethod form: Decision method. Describes how this method is used in practice.MediumComplexity: medium. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.Workshop + asyncFormat: workshop or async. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.
laufend
2-12
Details
DeliveryCategory: Delivery. Describes the method's domain of use.
Moves scope, sequence, and delivery flow toward a concrete result through "formulate the forecast question", "choose historical flow data", and "update the forecast regularly".
Core question: What probability distribution for completion duration or delivered count emerges when actual historical throughput values are repeatedly resampled?
Decision methodMethod form: Decision method. Describes how this method is used in practice.HighComplexity: high. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.Workshop + asyncFormat: workshop or async. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.