Complete firstComparable subject
Close decision need, service boundary, and Done; slice work so items flow comparably; check historical data quality.
Without a common frame, values are not comparable.
Method guideAgile
NoEstimates
A practical method guide: clarify prerequisites and materials, understand the complete process, and look up outputs, pitfalls, and stop criteria.
ComplexityMedium
Timelaufend
Participants2-12
FormatWorkshop + async
MaturityEstablished
01
Prerequisite
What needs to be finished first
Complete firstEvidence access
Small value-oriented items, explicit Ready/Done policies, WIP limits, throughput and cycle-time history, probabilistic forecast
Missing data remains visible as uncertainty.
02
Preparation
What needs to be ready before start
Materials
Small value-oriented items, explicit Ready/Done policies, WIP limits, throughput and cycle-time history, probabilistic forecast
People / roles
Product/service owner · delivery team · flow manager · data owner · stakeholders
Pre-read
Close decision need, service boundary, and Done; slice work so items flow comparably; check historical data quality.
Time needed
Half-day setup plus weekly replenishment, flow, and forecast reviews.
Setup
Prepare a workspace with Purpose · Slice · Control · Measure · Forecast · Learn; separate example from live data.
03
Core question
The one question this method answers
How can the team make planning and delivery decisions with small work items, flow data, and frequent reforecasting without estimating every item upfront?
04
Flow
Phases with goal, actions, output and pitfall
Sie reduziert den Bedarf an Vorabschätzung und steuert Arbeit über kleine, gleichmäßige Einheiten und sichtbaren Fluss. So sinkt Aufwand im Planning, während Lieferfähigkeit und Transparenz erhalten bleiben und Engpässe schneller auffallen.
NoEstimates · working structure
Fictional example
Fictional values show the actual method fields.
| System element | Policy/data | Fictional state | Decision signal | Action | Owner | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Item slicingAdd evidence and rationale. | Split policy | Valuable; one Done; provider migration in 4 items | Item age >8 days | Split before pull | Product + team | Replenishment |
| WIP/pullAdd evidence and rationale. | Pull policy | Limit 4; pull only with free slot | Blocked >2 days | Assign swarm owner | Flow manager | Daily |
| Flow dataAdd evidence and rationale. | 12-week window | Throughput 5,7,4,6,8,5,0,7,6,4,9,5 | Zero week remains a sample | Record cause; retain value | Data owner | Weekly |
| ForecastAdd evidence and rationale. | Date for quantity | 30 items: P50 6, P85 7, P95 8 weeks | P85 drifts beyond 8 weeks | Decide scope/WIP | Service owner | Weekly |
1. Policy/data
- Item slicing
- Split policy
- WIP/pull
- Pull policy
- Flow data
- 12-week window
- Forecast
- Date for quantity
2. Fictional state
- Item slicing
- Valuable; one Done; provider migration in 4 items
- WIP/pull
- Limit 4; pull only with free slot
- Flow data
- Throughput 5,7,4,6,8,5,0,7,6,4,9,5
- Forecast
- 30 items: P50 6, P85 7, P95 8 weeks
3. Decision signal
- Item slicing
- Item age >8 days
- WIP/pull
- Blocked >2 days
- Flow data
- Zero week remains a sample
- Forecast
- P85 drifts beyond 8 weeks
4. Action
- Item slicing
- Split before pull
- WIP/pull
- Assign swarm owner
- Flow data
- Record cause; retain value
- Forecast
- Decide scope/WIP
5. Owner
- Item slicing
- Product + team
- WIP/pull
- Flow manager
- Flow data
- Data owner
- Forecast
- Service owner
6. Review
- Item slicing
- Replenishment
- WIP/pull
- Daily
- Flow data
- Weekly
- Forecast
- Weekly
All values are fictional.
- 1
Purpose
Planning question
Goal
Planning question: Set which decisions will be supported without item estimates and define service boundary.
Inputs for this step
- Close decision need, service boundary, and Done; slice work so items flow comparably; check historical data quality.
- Small value-oriented items, explicit Ready/Done policies, WIP limits, throughput and cycle-time history, probabilistic forecast
Actions
- Set which decisions will be supported without item estimates and define service boundary.
Output
Planning question
Set which decisions will be supported without item estimates and define service boundary.
Quality check
Is it clear whether answering quantity-by-date or date-for-quantity?
Pitfall
NoEstimates is declared an end to planning. Name concrete decision question, risk level, and review cadence.
Timing: 30–45 minutes
- 2
Slice
Flowable items
Goal
Flowable items: Shape work into small valuable items with one Done and explicit split policy.
Inputs for this step
- Planning question
Actions
- Shape work into small valuable items with one Done and explicit split policy.
Output
Flowable items
Shape work into small valuable items with one Done and explicit split policy.
Quality check
Are large or unlike items detectable and splittable before pull?
Pitfall
Large epics flow as one counted item and distort data. Limit item age/size and split oversized work before start.
Timing: 45–60 minutes
- 3
Control
Flow system
Goal
Flow system: Operate pull, WIP limits, replenishment, and blocker policy; reprioritise scope continuously.
Inputs for this step
- Flowable items
Actions
- Operate pull, WIP limits, replenishment, and blocker policy; reprioritise scope continuously.
Output
Flow system
Operate pull, WIP limits, replenishment, and blocker policy; reprioritise scope continuously.
Quality check
Are new items pulled only with capacity and blockers actively ended?
Pitfall
Without estimation meetings, work starts without planning. Make selection, pull, and blocker rules explicit.
Timing: Ongoing
- 4
Measure
Flow data
Goal
Flow data: Capture throughput, cycle time, WIP, and item age from consistent start/Done events.
Inputs for this step
- Flow system
Actions
- Capture throughput, cycle time, WIP, and item age from consistent start/Done events.
Output
Flow data
Capture throughput, cycle time, WIP, and item age from consistent start/Done events.
Quality check
Is data complete, service-consistent, and free from retrospective redefinition?
Pitfall
Average velocity simply replaces item estimates. Preserve empirical distribution and causes of outliers.
Timing: Weekly
- 5
Forecast
Delivery forecast
Goal
Delivery forecast: Forecast remaining count probabilistically from historical flow and test scope/WIP scenarios.
Inputs for this step
- Flow data
Actions
- Forecast remaining count probabilistically from historical flow and test scope/WIP scenarios.
Output
Delivery forecast
Forecast remaining count probabilistically from historical flow and test scope/WIP scenarios.
Quality check
Does forecast state quantile, data window, and assumptions?
Pitfall
One date is presented as a commitment. Show multiple quantiles and tie decision to accepted risk.
Timing: Weekly
- 6
Learn
Flow decision
Goal
Flow decision: Compare forecast to actual, decide scope/policies, and justify new data window after system change.
Inputs for this step
- Delivery forecast
Actions
- Compare forecast to actual, decide scope/policies, and justify new data window after system change.
Output
Flow decision
Compare forecast to actual, decide scope/policies, and justify new data window after system change.
Quality check
Does variance lead to a scope, WIP, or capability decision?
Pitfall
The team improves estimate values rather than flow. Improve blockers, ageing, and slicing; then update forecast.
Timing: Weekly
05
Artifact
What comes out at the end
Sketch: what the artifact looks like
Form
Operable NoEstimates system with small items, pull/WIP rules, replenishment, flow metrics, probabilistic forecasts, and scope decisions.
Versioning / ownership
Record date, team, data state, and review date; preserve prior versions.
Tool alternatives
- Item-slicing rules
- WIP/pull board
- Throughput and cycle-time data
- Forecast and decision log
no-estimates-working-template.md
Set subject, data, roles, flow, and review.
NoEstimates: Worksheet
Question
To be confirmed
Desired outcome
To be confirmed
Scope
Whole initiative Time: Half-day setup plus weekly replenishment, flow, and forecast reviews.
Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.
Preparation for this scope
Method setup
- Materials: Small value-oriented items, explicit Ready/Done policies, WIP limits, throughput and cycle-time history, probabilistic forecast
- Roles: Product/service owner · delivery team · flow manager · data owner · stakeholders
- Advance information: Close decision need, service boundary, and Done; slice work so items flow comparably; check historical data quality.
- Overall time needed: Half-day setup plus weekly replenishment, flow, and forecast reviews.
- Setup: Prepare a workspace with Purpose · Slice · Control · Measure · Forecast · Learn; separate example from live data.
Prepare for the work steps
Purpose: Planning question
- Close decision need, service boundary, and Done; slice work so items flow comparably; check historical data quality.
- Small value-oriented items, explicit Ready/Done policies, WIP limits, throughput and cycle-time history, probabilistic forecast
Slice: Flowable items
- Planning question
Control: Flow system
- Flowable items
Measure: Flow data
- Flow system
Forecast: Delivery forecast
- Flow data
Learn: Flow decision
- Delivery forecast
NoEstimates · working structure
| System element | Policy/data | Fictional state | Decision signal | Action | Owner | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Item slicing | ||||||
| WIP/pull | ||||||
| Flow data | ||||||
| Forecast |
- Item slicing: Add evidence and rationale.
- WIP/pull: Add evidence and rationale.
- Flow data: Add evidence and rationale.
- Forecast: Add evidence and rationale.
The blank worksheet contains prompts only.
Reference · original teaching example
Purpose: Planning question
Expected artifact: Planning question
Set which decisions will be supported without item estimates and define service boundary.
Entry:
...
- Is it clear whether answering quantity-by-date or date-for-quantity?
Slice: Flowable items
Expected artifact: Flowable items
Shape work into small valuable items with one Done and explicit split policy.
Entry:
...
- Are large or unlike items detectable and splittable before pull?
Control: Flow system
Expected artifact: Flow system
Operate pull, WIP limits, replenishment, and blocker policy; reprioritise scope continuously.
Entry:
...
- Are new items pulled only with capacity and blockers actively ended?
Measure: Flow data
Expected artifact: Flow data
Capture throughput, cycle time, WIP, and item age from consistent start/Done events.
Entry:
...
- Is data complete, service-consistent, and free from retrospective redefinition?
Forecast: Delivery forecast
Expected artifact: Delivery forecast
Forecast remaining count probabilistically from historical flow and test scope/WIP scenarios.
Entry:
...
- Does forecast state quantile, data window, and assumptions?
Learn: Flow decision
Expected artifact: Flow decision
Compare forecast to actual, decide scope/policies, and justify new data window after system change.
Entry:
...
- Does variance lead to a scope, WIP, or capability decision?
Open questions and next steps
...
Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/no-estimates/run-sheet
06
Example output
Concrete filled scenario, fictional example
Fictional example for orientation. Counts and timings describe this case and are not universal requirements.
no-estimates-beispiel.md
Concrete filled scenario, fictional example
Fictional teaching example: NoEstimates · working structure
| System element | Policy/data | Fictional state | Decision signal | Action | Owner | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Item slicing | Split policy | Valuable; one Done; provider migration in 4 items | Item age >8 days | Split before pull | Product + team | Replenishment |
| WIP/pull | Pull policy | Limit 4; pull only with free slot | Blocked >2 days | Assign swarm owner | Flow manager | Daily |
| Flow data | 12-week window | Throughput 5,7,4,6,8,5,0,7,6,4,9,5 | Zero week remains a sample | Record cause; retain value | Data owner | Weekly |
| Forecast | Date for quantity | 30 items: P50 6, P85 7, P95 8 weeks | P85 drifts beyond 8 weeks | Decide scope/WIP | Service owner | Weekly |
07
Pitfalls
Recognize symptoms and steer against them
Quick overview, the full text is in the matching phase in the flow
- Planning questionNoEstimates is declared an end to planning.View in phase
- Flowable itemsLarge epics flow as one counted item and distort data.View in phase
- Flow systemWithout estimation meetings, work starts without planning.View in phase
- Flow dataAverage velocity simply replaces item estimates.View in phase
- Delivery forecastOne date is presented as a commitment.View in phase
- Flow decisionThe team improves estimate values rather than flow.View in phase
Trap
Planning question
Symptom
NoEstimates is declared an end to planning.
What to do
Name concrete decision question, risk level, and review cadence.
Trap
Flowable items
Symptom
Large epics flow as one counted item and distort data.
What to do
Limit item age/size and split oversized work before start.
Trap
Flow system
Symptom
Without estimation meetings, work starts without planning.
What to do
Make selection, pull, and blocker rules explicit.
Trap
Flow data
Symptom
Average velocity simply replaces item estimates.
What to do
Preserve empirical distribution and causes of outliers.
Trap
Delivery forecast
Symptom
One date is presented as a commitment.
What to do
Show multiple quantiles and tie decision to accepted risk.
Trap
Flow decision
Symptom
The team improves estimate values rather than flow.
What to do
Improve blockers, ageing, and slicing; then update forecast.
08
Stop criteria
When to pause, resolve prerequisites, or choose another approach
Stop Purpose: Is it clear whether answering quantity-by-date or date-for-quantity?
Stop Slice: Are large or unlike items detectable and splittable before pull?
Stop Control: Are new items pulled only with capacity and blockers actively ended?
Stop Measure: Is data complete, service-consistent, and free from retrospective redefinition?
Stop Forecast: Does forecast state quantile, data window, and assumptions?
Stop Learn: Does variance lead to a scope, WIP, or capability decision?
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