methodatlas
Session Builder

Plan my session

Plan a concrete work block with agenda, roles, preparation, and a copyable result artifact.

Method sessionOngoing, setup 30-60 min, forecast 15-30 minWorkshop or asyncThroughput Data

Session: NoEstimates

The plan translates the method into a concrete facilitated work block. Your inputs flow directly into the session brief and work artifact.

Derived automatically

Method session with 2-12. The plan uses the existing method logic and the runsheet.

Runsheet
Participation logic
Team round, shared work and alignment

Use the session for shared understanding. Contributions are collected visibly, assumptions are aligned, and open differences remain traceable in the artifact.

Outcome logic
Finish artifact

The session works directly toward Throughput Data. After the session, the artifact should be shareable, reviewable, or reusable.

  1. 1

    Phase 1: Define planning question

    10 min

    State clearly which decision estimation should support: release date, budget, or scope cut. For each question, check whether flow data is sufficient. Hint: Without a concrete question, NoEstimates becomes dogmatic. Some questions still require explicit estimation (for example unknown investments). Review honesty per case.

    FacilitatorThroughput Data
  2. 2

    Phase 2: Tighten slicing

    20-30 min

    Review current items for size suitability (cycle time less than 5 days). Document slicing rules, for example: "an item is small if a developer can complete it in three days." Hint: Without small slicing, throughput mixes apples and oranges. If 30% of items are over five days cycle time, fix slicing before forecasting.

    FacilitatorFlow Forecast
  3. 3

    Phase 3: Collect throughput data

    15 min

    Count completed items per week and collect at least 6-12 weeks of data. Include cycle-time distribution and mark anomalies (holidays, outages). Hint: The data window must match the question. Use 12 weeks for quarterly forecast, 4-6 weeks for sprint forecast. Account for seasonal effects.

    FacilitatorSlicing Rules
  4. 4

    Phase 4: Generate and communicate forecast

    15-30 min

    Run Monte Carlo forecast for planning question. Calculate percentiles (50%, 70%, 85%, 95%). Communicate a range: "85% chance of completion in five weeks." Hint: Update forecasts weekly. When the system changes (new engineer, migration), discard old data windows.

    OwnerThroughput Data
  5. 5

    Publish artifact

    10 min

    Check the artifact for completeness, define location, set version or status, and name review recipients.

    OwnerThroughput Data
Usable artifact

Session Brief

For invitations, boards, tickets, PR descriptions, or workshop notes.

session-brief.md

Session Brief: NoEstimates

Goal

Artifact: Throughput Data

Working Question

Which planning decision do we need to make, and which flow data or slicing rules answer it more cheaply than an estimation ritual?

Context

Throughput data (items per week) for last 6-12 weeks; cycle-time distribution; current WIP; slicing rules; known planning questions (release date, budget, scope).

Setup

  • Format: Method session
  • Duration: Ongoing, setup 30-60 min, forecast 15-30 min
  • Mode: Workshop or async
  • Participants: A flow master or tech lead who maintains data and communicates forecasts; the delivery team; a product owner for slicing and prioritization; optional coach for methodology change.
  • Owner: A flow master or tech lead who maintains data and communicates forecasts
  • Participation mode: Team round, shared work and alignment
  • Outcome logic: Finish artifact

Participation Logic

Use the session for shared understanding. Contributions are collected visibly, assumptions are aligned, and open differences remain traceable in the artifact.

Outcome Logic

The session works directly toward Throughput Data. After the session, the artifact should be shareable, reviewable, or reusable.

Input

Flow dashboard with throughput and cycle time (Jira, Linear, Azure DevOps, or external tools such as Actionable Agile); backlog with sliced items; forecast tool or Monte Carlo simulator; list of typical planning questions.

Preparation

Export throughput data as a dataset. Configure forecast tool (Monte Carlo with 1,000+ simulations). Define a "small story" rule. Identify existing estimation rituals to replace.

Agenda

  1. Phase 1: Define planning question (10 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: State clearly which decision estimation should support: release date, budget, or scope cut. For each question, check whether flow data is sufficient. Hint: Without a concrete question, NoEstimates becomes dogmatic. Some questions still require explicit estimation (for example unknown investments). Review honesty per case. Output: Throughput Data

  2. Phase 2: Tighten slicing (20-30 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Review current items for size suitability (cycle time less than 5 days). Document slicing rules, for example: "an item is small if a developer can complete it in three days." Hint: Without small slicing, throughput mixes apples and oranges. If 30% of items are over five days cycle time, fix slicing before forecasting. Output: Flow Forecast

  3. Phase 3: Collect throughput data (15 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Count completed items per week and collect at least 6-12 weeks of data. Include cycle-time distribution and mark anomalies (holidays, outages). Hint: The data window must match the question. Use 12 weeks for quarterly forecast, 4-6 weeks for sprint forecast. Account for seasonal effects. Output: Slicing Rules

  4. Phase 4: Generate and communicate forecast (15-30 min) Owner: Owner Action: Run Monte Carlo forecast for planning question. Calculate percentiles (50%, 70%, 85%, 95%). Communicate a range: "85% chance of completion in five weeks." Hint: Update forecasts weekly. When the system changes (new engineer, migration), discard old data windows. Output: Throughput Data

  5. Publish artifact (10 min) Owner: Owner Action: Check the artifact for completeness, define location, set version or status, and name review recipients. Output: Throughput Data

Closeout

  • Update result artifact: Throughput Data
  • Define location, version, and review recipients.
  • Define owner, next step, and review date.
Usable artifact

Work artifact

Pre-filled starting point based on the matching template.

work-artifact.md

Throughput Data: NoEstimates

Working Question

Which planning decision do we need to make, and which flow data or slicing rules answer it more cheaply than an estimation ritual?

Context

Throughput data (items per week) for last 6-12 weeks; cycle-time distribution; current WIP; slicing rules; known planning questions (release date, budget, scope).

Participants

  • Owner: A flow master or tech lead who maintains data and communicates forecasts
  • Participants: A flow master or tech lead who maintains data and communicates forecasts; the delivery team; a product owner for slicing and prioritization; optional coach for methodology change.

Input

Flow dashboard with throughput and cycle time (Jira, Linear, Azure DevOps, or external tools such as Actionable Agile); backlog with sliced items; forecast tool or Monte Carlo simulator; list of typical planning questions.

Template

NoEstimates Working Template

Goal

Approach that reduces explicit effort estimation and instead uses small items, throughput, and forecasting.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Execution

Short notes along the runsheet.

Output artifacts

  • Throughput Data:
  • Flow Forecast:
  • Slicing Rules:

Assumptions and open questions

  • ...

Decision / Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

Completion Check

  • Throughput Data is complete enough for review:
  • Location:
  • Version / status:
  • Review by:
  • Next step:

Next Step

  • Review result
  • Mark open questions
  • Schedule review or decision
Template base

NoEstimates Working Template

View templateCompact working template for NoEstimates with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
markdown

no-estimates-working-template.md

Compact working template for NoEstimates with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.

NoEstimates Working Template

Goal

Approach that reduces explicit effort estimation and instead uses small items, throughput, and forecasting.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Execution

Short notes along the runsheet.

Output artifacts

  • Throughput Data:
  • Flow Forecast:
  • Slicing Rules:

Assumptions and open questions

  • ...

Decision / Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

Ready to use when
  • Working question, owner, and target artifact are visible.
  • The result fits Throughput Data.
  • Maintain throughput data as a time series (for example, sheet with date, completed items). Archive forecasts per planning question with date and keep old ones. Version slicing rules in the team wiki.
  • Open questions are noted as follow-ups.
  • The next review or decision point is scheduled.
ProfileRunsheet