methodatlas
Agile

Affinity Estimation

Turns backlog, sprint work, and team flow into a tangible result by preparing items as cards, building a relative size axis, and clarifying outliers and uncertainties.

Core question
How can the team place the items in a reliable relative size order and label the resulting groups?
MediumWorkshop30-90 min
Open runsheetPlan sessionStart comparison
Purpose

The method helps clarify backlog, sprint work, and team flow in a concrete way. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery capability. The result is captured as an affinity size map, grouped estimates, and unclear items.

How it works

The team follows the steps: prepare items as cards, build a relative size axis, sort items silently, assign size labels to clusters, and clarify outliers and uncertainties. Each step is captured visibly. At the end, an affinity size map, grouped estimates, and unclear items are available so decisions, tests, or actions can follow directly.

Visual orientation

Method sketch for a quick mental model.

Affinity Estimation · Relative Size MapViele Backlog Items schnell entlang einer Größenachse grob schätzen
Affinity Estimation Relative Size MapDie Skizze zeigt Backlog-Karten, die entlang einer relativen Größenachse in Size Buckets sortiert und als grobe Schätzung dokumentiert werden.Viele Items grob relativ schätzenErst still sortieren, dann nur Grenzen, Ausreißer und große Items besprechen.Input ItemsBacklog-Karten sammelnRelative Size MapStill von klein nach groß einsortierenEstimate OutputAusreißer und Grenzen klärenLoginExportSSOReportPortalGrenzfälle kurz klären13er splitten oder spiken1kleinTooltipCopy3überschaubarFilterAPI5mittelExportSSO8großReportPortal13splittenAuditSpikekleingroßGrouped EstimatesItems je Size BucketUnclear ItemsAnnahmen klärenSplit CandidatesGroße Items schneiden

Flow

  1. 1Prepare items as cards
  2. 2Build a relative size axis
  3. 3Sort items silently
  4. 4Assign size labels to clusters
  5. 5Clarify outliers and uncertainties

The runsheet guides execution with 5 phases, timeboxes, 5 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.

Open runsheet

Ideal for

  • Large backlogs
  • Release planning
  • Team calibration

Not good for

  • Single high-risk items
  • Very unclear requirements
  • Detailed cost estimation

Deep dive

In detail

Affinity Estimation transfers affinity grouping into estimation. Instead of discussing each item at length, the team sorts many cards relative to one another from small to large. Then the clusters are labeled with sizes such as T-shirt sizes or story point buckets. Discussion happens mainly where items are unexpectedly placed or where several people have clearly different assumptions.

Facilitation

Prepare all items as cards and a visible size axis. Let the group sort silently first to avoid long debates. Discuss only outliers, unclear items, and cluster boundaries, then document assumptions and slicing candidates.

Output artifacts
Affinity Size MapGrouped EstimatesUnclear Items
Tags
estimationaffinity groupingbacklogrelative sizing

Sources

Affinity Estimation - Public Agilepublicagile.org[2401.16152] Agile Effort Estimation: Comparing the Accuracy and Efficiency of Planning Poker, Bucket System, and Affiniarxiv.org
Artifact templates
Affinity Estimation Working TemplateCompact working template for Affinity Estimation with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
canvas

affinity-estimation-working-template.md

Compact working template for Affinity Estimation with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.

Affinity Estimation Canvas

Context

What is this method used for?

Core question

Which question should be answered at the end?

Input

Which data, observations, or materials are available?

Working area

  • Area 1:
  • Area 2:
  • Area 3:
  • Relationships / patterns:

Output artifacts

  • Affinity Size Map:
  • Grouped Estimates:
  • Unclear Items:

Open questions

  • ...

Next step

Owner, date, success signal.

When to choose differently

Short decision aid for existing alternatives.

Planning Poker

Statt Affinity Estimation, wenn ihr Schätzungen relativ kalibrieren wollt und gemeinsame Annahmen offenlegen möchtet.

Wideband Delphi

Statt Affinity Estimation, wenn ihr Schätzungen mit mehreren Expertenrunden belastbarer machen wollt.

Similar methods

All methods
Agile
Bucket System

Moves backlog, sprint work, and team flow toward a concrete result through "prepare buckets and scale", "place reference items", and "flag large or unclear items".

Agile
Planning Poker

Turns backlog, sprint work, and team flow into a tangible result by presenting the item, clarifying questions, and discussing deviations before estimating again.

Statt Affinity Estimation, wenn ihr Schätzungen relativ kalibrieren wollt und gemeinsame Annahmen offenlegen möchtet.

Agile
Story Points

Moves backlog, sprint work, and team flow toward a concrete result through "choose reference stories", "define the scale", and "interpret velocity only within the team".

Agile
T-Shirt Sizing

Turns backlog, sprint work, and team flow into a tangible result by explaining the scale, choosing reference items, and marking large items.

Agile
Ideal Days

Moves backlog, sprint work, and team flow toward a concrete result through "explain the ideal day unit", "calibrate with a reference item", and "do not confuse it with calendar days".

Agile
Scrum

Product Backlog, Sprint Goal, Increment, and retrospective loops create a repeatable cadence for complex product work.