Purpose
For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise.
Operations Analysis method
Change Analysis
Change analysis compares an outlier with a stable case and filters differences that may explain the deviation.
Change analysis compares conditions before and after an observed shift. The comparison produces testable hypotheses about which change may have caused the effect.
Which evidenced change distinguishes the event from a comparable incident-free situation, and what effect did it have?
- Participants
- 2-6
- Time
- 90–180 minutes after securing the timeline; add evidence validation.
The steps form one complete method run.
Compare
Comparison pair
Test event and incident-free reference for equivalent service, boundary, and conditions.
Changes
Change register
Capture differences across people, equipment, procedures, controls, and environment.
Sequence
Evidence-backed chronology
Check whether each change was effective before the event; document source and uncertainty.
Effect
Effect assessment
Test mechanism and magnitude of each relevant change; distinguish trigger from exposed latent weakness.
Conclude
Cause and action path
Move evidenced causal changes and system weaknesses into further causal analysis or actions.
Add new evidence at review and version decisions with the prior state.
A good fit when
Bei einer Abweichung nach einer Veränderung isoliert die Methode den Einfluss des geänderten Zustands. Sie grenzt ein, welche Unterschiede relevant sind und welche nur Begleitrauschen darstellen.
Ideal for
- Disturbances after changes
- Release or process problems
- Quality deviations
Not good for
- Problems without a reference state
- Long-term structural conflicts
- Pure prioritization
Outputs
Cause and action path
Change analysis matrix with reference, event state, difference, time, effect, evidence, and causal status.
Change Analysis · working structure
Fictional example
Fictional values show the actual method fields.
| Category | Reference | Event | Difference | Time | Effect | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProcessAdd evidence and rationale. | No batch during peak | Batch starts 09:08 | New parallel workload | 09:08 | Pool rises to 95%; checkout timeouts | Scheduler and pool log | Causal trigger |
| ControlAdd evidence and rationale. | Batch metric visible | Metric removed | Alert blind spot | Dashboard release 13 May | Batch use triggers no alert | Dashboard version | Contributing control gap |
| PeopleAdd evidence and rationale. | Same team | Same team | No difference | Unchanged | No observable effect | Roster | Not causal |
1. Reference
- Process
- No batch during peak
- Control
- Batch metric visible
- People
- Same team
2. Event
- Process
- Batch starts 09:08
- Control
- Metric removed
- People
- Same team
3. Difference
- Process
- New parallel workload
- Control
- Alert blind spot
- People
- No difference
4. Time
- Process
- 09:08
- Control
- Dashboard release 13 May
- People
- Unchanged
5. Effect
- Process
- Pool rises to 95%; checkout timeouts
- Control
- Batch use triggers no alert
- People
- No observable effect
6. Evidence
- Process
- Scheduler and pool log
- Control
- Dashboard version
- People
- Roster
7. Status
- Process
- Causal trigger
- Control
- Contributing control gap
- People
- Not causal
All values are fictional.
First step
Choose the event and a genuinely comparable incident-free reference with the same boundary and similar conditions.
Deep dive
How it works
Comparing before and after highlights the conditions that actually shifted. This produces testable hypotheses about which change triggered the observed effect. Change is thereby not suspected across the board but analyzed specifically.
In detail
Change Analysis uses comparison as the main move: what is different from before or from a working case. The method does not search broadly for every possible cause but focuses on relevant changes around the time of the deviation. Differences become hypotheses that can be validated with data or observation. That makes hidden process, material, or context changes visible.
Facilitation
Prepare a good comparison case and collect data on time, place, people, material, and process. Keep the discussion strictly on what changed and separate relevant from random differences. Every change should turn into a testable cause hypothesis.
The method guide walks execution through 5 phases, timing, 5 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.
Open method guideYour perspective
Does this method help with your work?
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Sources and topics
Artifact templates
Change Analysis: WorksheetSet subject, evidence, roles, flow, and review.markdown
Change Analysis: WorksheetSet subject, evidence, roles, flow, and review.
markdownchange-analysis-working-template.md
Set subject, evidence, roles, flow, and review.
Change Analysis: Worksheet
Question
To be confirmed
Desired outcome
To be confirmed
Scope
Complete run Time: 90–180 minutes after securing the timeline; add evidence validation.
Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.
Preparation for this scope
Method setup
- Materials: Event situation, comparable incident-free reference, change matrix, time and source evidence, cause log
- Roles: Investigation lead · people from reference and event periods · process/system experts · action owners
- Advance information: Choose the event and a genuinely comparable incident-free reference with the same boundary and similar conditions.
- Overall time needed: 90–180 minutes after securing the timeline; add evidence validation.
- Setup: Prepare a workspace with Compare · Changes · Sequence · Effect · Conclude; separate example from live data.
Prepare for the work steps
Compare: Comparison pair
- Choose the event and a genuinely comparable incident-free reference with the same boundary and similar conditions.
- Event situation, comparable incident-free reference, change matrix, time and source evidence, cause log
Changes: Change register
- Comparison pair
Sequence: Evidence-backed chronology
- Change register
Effect: Effect assessment
- Evidence-backed chronology
Conclude: Cause and action path
- Effect assessment
Change Analysis · working structure
| Category | Reference | Event | Difference | Time | Effect | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Process | |||||||
| Control | |||||||
| People |
- Process: Add evidence and rationale.
- Control: Add evidence and rationale.
- People: Add evidence and rationale.
The blank worksheet contains prompts only.
Reference · original teaching example
Compare: Comparison pair
Expected artifact: Comparison pair
Test event and incident-free reference for equivalent service, boundary, and conditions.
Entry:
...
- Are reference and event comparable apart from changes under investigation?
Changes: Change register
Expected artifact: Change register
Capture differences across people, equipment, procedures, controls, and environment.
Entry:
...
- Is every difference concrete and labelled with time or version?
Sequence: Evidence-backed chronology
Expected artifact: Evidence-backed chronology
Check whether each change was effective before the event; document source and uncertainty.
Entry:
...
- Did the change precede the effect, and is activation evidenced?
Effect: Effect assessment
Expected artifact: Effect assessment
Test mechanism and magnitude of each relevant change; distinguish trigger from exposed latent weakness.
Entry:
...
- Is effect supported by a mechanism and counter-comparison?
Conclude: Cause and action path
Expected artifact: Cause and action path
Move evidenced causal changes and system weaknesses into further causal analysis or actions.
Entry:
...
- Were non-causal differences rejected and actions linked to evidenced effect?
Open questions and next steps
...
Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/change-analysis/run-sheet
Alternatives and neighbors
Fitting alternatives with decision guidance, followed by other related methods.
Operations
5 Whys
Instead of Change Analysis, choose 5 Whys when there is no clear change acting as the trigger and you are looking for a simple cause chain.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Instead of Change Analysis, choose Fishbone Diagram when you want to gather causes into clear categories and keep discussions structured.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Reconstructs a chain of events, marks factors, and derives verifiable causes and corrective actions.
Operations
8D Problem Solving
Coordinates team, immediate actions, root cause analysis, and prevention across eight steps to a verified solution.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Models a top event with AND and OR branches to make critical paths and causes visible.
Operations
Scatter Diagram
Paired data points reveal whether two variables move together and where a suspected relationship needs deeper proof.
Constraints and origin
MediumWorkshop + async45-120 min
Profile
- Method form
- Analysis method
- Participants
- 2-6
- Time
- 45-120 min
- Maturity
- Established
- Origin
- Praxisgemeinschaft
Next up: Root Cause Analysis