methodatlas
Decision Making

Wideband Delphi

Moves options, criteria, and risks toward a concrete result through "clarify the estimate object and unit", "collect independent estimates", and "document another round and the outcome".

Core question
Which range and expected value describe the estimation object most honestly under explicit expert assumptions?
HighWorkshop + async1-4 h oder mehrere Runden
Open runsheetPlan sessionStart comparison
Purpose

Helps clarify options, criteria, and risks in concrete terms. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.

How it works

The team follows the steps "clarify the estimate object and unit", "collect independent estimates", "aggregate the range", "discuss assumptions and outliers", and "document another round and the outcome". Each step is made visible. At the end, Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes are available so decisions, tests, or actions can continue directly.

Visual orientation

Method sketch for a quick mental model.

Wideband Delphi · ExpertenschätzungUnabhängige Expertenschätzungen anonym aggregieren, Annahmen diskutieren und die Bandbreite über Runden verengen
Wideband DelphiDas Visual zeigt unabhängige Expertenschätzungen, aggregierte Bandbreiten, Annahmendiskussion und eine verengte zweite Runde.Expertenschätzung robust und gruppendruckarm machenErst unabhängig schätzen, dann Bandbreiten und Annahmen besprechen und in weiteren Runden Unsicherheit bewusst verengen.anonym sammelnBandbreite statt Einzelwertnächste Runde verengt UnsicherheitScope & Einheitwas wird geschätzt, in welcherEinheit?E18E213E321E413aggregierte BandbreiteRunde 1Runde 2Annahmen diskutierenAusreißer erklären, ohne PersonenbloßzustellenEstimate RangeBandbreite plus Assumption Log

Flow

  1. 1Clarify the estimate object and unit
  2. 2Collect independent estimates
  3. 3Aggregate the range
  4. 4Discuss assumptions and outliers
  5. 5Document another round and the outcome

The runsheet guides execution with 5 phases, timeboxes, 5 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.

Open runsheet

Ideal for

  • Expert judgment
  • Architecture effort
  • Project or release estimation

Not good for

  • Routine story estimation
  • Very small tasks
  • Teams without relevant expertise

Deep dive

In detail

Wideband Delphi extends the Delphi idea with stronger interaction between estimation rounds. Experts first provide independent estimates, then the group surfaces ranges, outliers, and assumptions. The group discusses reasons for differences without exposing individuals. Additional rounds narrow the range or intentionally document remaining uncertainty.

Facilitation

Define scope, assumptions, and unit of measure up front. Collect the first values independently, document ranges, and discuss differences calmly. Do not force consensus if real uncertainty remains.

Output artifacts
Estimate RangeAssumption LogExpert Consensus Notes
Tags
estimationexpertsdelphiforecasting

Sources

Wideband delphi - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
Artifact templates
Wideband Delphi Working TemplateCompact working template for Wideband Delphi with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
markdown

wideband-delphi-working-template.md

Compact working template for Wideband Delphi with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.

Wideband Delphi Working Template

Goal

Structured expert estimation with anonymous individual values, discussion, and iterative convergence.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Execution

Short notes along the runsheet.

Output artifacts

  • Estimate Range:
  • Assumption Log:
  • Expert Consensus Notes:

Assumptions and open questions

  • ...

Decision / Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

When to choose differently

Short decision aid for existing alternatives.

Planning Poker

Statt Wideband Delphi, wenn das Team schnell relativ schätzen will und anonyme Expertenrunden zu schwergewichtig wären.

Monte Carlo Forecasting

Statt Wideband Delphi, wenn ihr mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten statt mit Einzelschätzungen planen wollt.

Similar methods

All methods
Decision Making
PERT Estimation

Moves options, criteria, and risks toward a concrete result through "collect three values", "explain the formula", and "document the planning assumption".

Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation

Moves options, criteria, and risks toward a concrete result through "clarify the estimate object", "determine the optimistic value", and "derive the range, expected value, and risks".

Decision Making
Delphi Method

Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by defining the question and panel, querying in the first round, and deriving the outcome in the next round.

Agile
Ideal Days

Moves backlog, sprint work, and team flow toward a concrete result through "explain the ideal day unit", "calibrate with a reference item", and "do not confuse it with calendar days".

Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting

Moves scope, sequence, and delivery flow toward a concrete result through "formulate the forecast question", "choose historical flow data", and "update the forecast regularly".

Statt Wideband Delphi, wenn ihr mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten statt mit Einzelschätzungen planen wollt.

Decision Making
Red Teaming

Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by defining scope, clarifying the Red Team role, and deriving mitigations.