methodatlas
Decision Making

Delphi Method

Turns options, criteria, and risks into a tangible result by defining the question and panel, querying in the first round, and deriving the outcome in the next round.

Core question
What range or which consensus emerges when experts give iterative, anonymous estimates on an uncertain future question?
HighAsync1-4 Wochen
Open runsheetPlan sessionStart comparison
Purpose

The method helps clarify options, criteria, and risks concretely. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, and Assumption Notes.

How it works

The team follows the steps: define the question and panel, survey the first round, aggregate responses, feed back responses, and derive the outcome in another round. Each step is captured visibly. In the end, an Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, and Assumption Notes are available so decisions, tests, or actions can follow directly.

Visual orientation

Method sketch for a quick mental model.

Delphi Method · Expert ConsensusAggregate anonymous expert estimates across several rounds, feed them back, and condense toward consensus or ranges
Delphi MethodThe visual shows a Delphi method with future question, anonymous expert panel, aggregation, feedback, further rounds, and consensus band.Iteratively condense expert estimates into robust rangesDelphi avoids group pressure by keeping individual judgments anonymous and returning only aggregated feedback.independentspread visibleiteratestable enoughFuture questionforecast or uncertainassumptionExpert Panelanonymous estimatesAggregationmedian, spread, and reasoningFeedbackfeed distribution backRound 2+revise estimatesConsensus bandforecast with range andassumptions

Flow

  1. 1Define the question and panel
  2. 2Run first round
  3. 3Aggregate responses
  4. 4Return feedback
  5. 5Derive result in next round

The runsheet guides execution with 5 phases, timeboxes, 5 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.

Open runsheet

Ideal for

  • Forecasting
  • Expert Judgment
  • Strategic Uncertainty

Not good for

  • Quick team decisions
  • Questions without relevant expertise

Deep dive

In detail

Delphi Method follows a clear working logic: define the question and panel, survey the first round, aggregate responses, feed back responses, and derive the outcome in another round. This turns the method into a visible thinking process instead of only a conversation. The participants move step by step from raw material, observations, or options to a shared structure. As a result, an Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, and Assumption Notes support decisions, learning, and further planning.

Facilitation

Prepare a clear guiding question, the right information, and a visible workspace. Plan about 1 to 4 weeks with 6 to 30 experts and use the format asynchronously. The process is demanding and should be prepared carefully; short timeboxes, visible intermediate results, and a parking lot for open questions are helpful.

Output artifacts
Expert ForecastConsensus RangeAssumption Notes
Tags
forecastingexpertsdecisionstrategy

Sources

Delphi Method | RANDrand.org
Artifact templates
Delphi Method Working TemplateCompact working template for the Delphi Method with anonymous rounds, feedback, convergence, and recommendation.
markdown

delphi-method-working-template.md

Compact working template for the Delphi Method with anonymous rounds, feedback, convergence, and recommendation.

Delphi Method Working Template

Goal

Build a shared assessment through anonymous expert input across repeated rounds.

Context

What question should be answered, and which kind of expertise is needed?

Input

  • Research question:
  • Panel members:
  • Source material:
  • Round schedule:

Working area

  • Round 1 statements:
  • Round 2 feedback:
  • Convergence signals:
  • Remaining disagreements:
  • Recommendation draft:

Output artifacts

  • Round summaries:
  • Consensus statement:
  • Recommendation:

Open questions

  • ...

Decision / next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

When to choose differently

Short decision aid for existing alternatives.

Scenario Planning

Statt Delphi Method, wenn ihr mit mehreren Zukunftsbildern arbeiten wollt, statt nur einen Verlauf zu planen.

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