Product Strategy Decision method

DIBB

Connects data, insight, belief, and bet into a traceable product strategy.

DIBB starts with reliable data, interprets it as insight, states a testable strategic belief, and derives a bounded bet. Every link remains justified.

Core question

Which bet follows from which belief, and which insight is supported by what data?

Plan DIBB Method guide

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Participants: 2-8
Time: 1-2 h

DIBB uses data → insight → belief → bet as an explicit reasoning chain. Assessments remain justified and context-bound.

Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.

Data evidence
Data evidence
Document data quality, segment, horizon, and source.
Insight
Insight
Interpret pattern and test alternative explanations.
Belief
Belief
State the strategic causal belief explicitly.
Strategic bet
Strategic bet
Decide a bounded investment with target, guardrail, and review date.

Update after new evidence or a material context change and retain the previous version.

A good fit when

For strategy and prioritisation discussions with existing data and decision authority.

Ideal for

Strategic decisions
Product bets
Cross-functional alignment
Documenting strategy logic

Not good for

Operational day-to-day decisions
Pure backlog prioritization
Topics without a data basis

Outputs

DIBB strategy chain
DIBB strategy chain with traceable sources, assumptions, and domain decisions.
Decision and review trail
Owners, dates, and next review for DIBB strategy chain.

DIBB strategy chain

Fictional worked example

data → insight → belief → bet as an explicit reasoning chain as a precise working structure with a fictional example.

Data

Data information to record

31 % Abbruch; 62 % nach Konflikt; 18 Interviews.

Insight

Insight information to record

Expliziter Konfliktabschluss fehlt.

Belief

Belief information to record

Geführter Abschluss erhöht Completion.

Bet

Bet information to record

4 Wochen; +8 pp; Medianzeit Guardrail.

The example demonstrates the domain logic of DIBB; worksheets remain blank.

Gibson Biddle: DIBB

First step

Start with the core question: Which bet follows from which belief, and which insight is supported by what data?

Open the method guide

Good to do first

Product Strategy

KPI Tree

Supplies data and value drivers from which insights and beliefs for the bet are derived.

Where to go next?

Product Strategy

OKRs

Translates the strategic bet into concrete objectives and key results.

Product Discovery

Experiment Canvas

Formalizes the chosen bet as a testable experiment with a success metric.

Deep dive

Purpose

DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.

How it works

The team gathers relevant data, formulates the central insights, makes beliefs derived from those insights explicit, chooses a concrete bet, versions success criteria and assumptions, and later reviews the bet against new learning.

In detail

DIBB was developed at Spotify for structured decision-making in product and strategy. A decision is built across four layers: Data are facts, metrics, or observations. Insight is the key interpretation drawn from the data. Belief is the conviction derived from the insight, including assumptions and context. Bet is the concrete decision or strategic wager. The structure keeps clear what a strategy is based on and which layer must be revisited when evidence changes.

Facilitation

Keep beliefs and bets clearly separated from data. Version DIBB documents so learning loops remain visible, and revisit beliefs when new data challenges them.

The method guide walks execution through 4 phases, timing, 4 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.

Open method guide

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Sources and topics

Topics

Strategy Decision Assumptions Hypothesis

Sources

Gibson Biddle: DIBBgibsonbiddle.medium.comGibson Biddle, former VP of Product at Netflix; his original Medium article introducing the DIBB strategy model.

In playbooks

Derive Product Strategy from VisionMove from a shared product vision through a solid bet to a measurable KPI structure.

Artifact templates

DIBB: WorksheetPlan DIBB around its domain steps and the concrete decision question.

markdown

dibb-working-template.md

Plan DIBB around its domain steps and the concrete decision question.

DIBB: Worksheet

Question

To be confirmed

Desired outcome

To be confirmed

Scope

Establish and review the practice Time: 60–90 minutes; recurring review

Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.

Preparation for this scope

Method setup

Materials: Quality-checked data, market and user context, strategic options, shared workspace, source links, and decision log.
Roles: Product/Strategy · Data · Research · executive decision owner
Advance information: Collect Quality-checked data, market and user context, strategic options in advance and mark open assumptions.
Overall time needed: 60–90 minutes; recurring review
Setup: Prepare data → insight → belief → bet as an explicit reasoning chain visibly and calibrate assessment terms before starting.

Prepare for the work steps

Data evidence: Data evidence

Quality-checked data
market and user context
strategic options

Insight: Insight

data record
market and user context
strategic options

Belief: Belief

insight
market and user context
strategic options

Strategic bet: Strategic bet

belief
market and user context
strategic options

DIBB strategy chain

Data

Data information to record

...

Insight

Insight information to record

...

Belief

Belief information to record

...

Bet

Bet information to record

...

Enter only real input, sources, and decisions.

Gibson Biddle: DIBB

Data evidence: Data evidence

Expected artifact: data record

data record · source · uncertainty · next decision

Entry:

...

Are data observed rather than interpreted?

Insight: Insight

Expected artifact: insight

insight · source · uncertainty · next decision

Entry:

...

Does insight follow from several pieces of evidence?

Belief: Belief

Expected artifact: belief

belief · source · uncertainty · next decision

Entry:

...

Is the belief falsifiable?

Strategic bet: Strategic bet

Expected artifact: bet

bet · source · uncertainty · next decision

Entry:

...

Does the bet follow directly from the belief?

Open questions and next steps

...

Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/dibb/run-sheet

Alternatives and neighbors

Fitting alternatives with decision guidance, followed by other related methods.

All methods

Paper illustration of two considered options leading to a decision record with a marked status and visible consequences.

Architecture

Architecture Decision Record

Instead of DIBB, choose Architecture Decision Record when you want to document an architecture decision with context, options, and consequences.

Paper objective sheet with five SMART fields, baseline, target, owner, deadline and a complete result statement.

Product Strategy

SMART Goals

Formulates goals precisely enough that measure, relevance, and deadline together form a clear basis for steering.

Product Strategy

Counter Metrics

Moves target group, value, goals, and priorities toward a concrete result through "name the main metric", "collect possible unintended side effects", and "use counter metrics alongside the main metric in reviews".