Turns baseline, opportunities, and strategic options into a tangible result by defining the focal question, collecting drivers, and testing strategic options.
Core question: Which combinations of uncertain drivers create plausibly different futures, and which strategic options are robust in more than one future?
Planning toolMethod form: Planning tool. Describes how this method is used in practice.HighComplexity: high. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.WorkshopFormat: workshop. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.
0.5-2 Tage
4-12
Run sheet · visual · session plan
Details
Decision MakingCategory: Decision Making. Describes the method's domain of use.
Moves options, criteria, and risks toward a concrete result through "clarify the estimate object", "determine the optimistic value", and "derive the range, expected value, and risks".
Core question: Which realistic range from optimistic to pessimistic describes the estimation object, and which risks drive the difference between the three values?
Decision methodMethod form: Decision method. Describes how this method is used in practice.MediumComplexity: medium. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.Workshop + asyncFormat: workshop or async. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.
10-30 min je Item
1-8
Run sheet · visual · session plan
Details
Systems ThinkingCategory: Systems Thinking. Describes the method's domain of use.
Strukturiert eine Lage entlang Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity und Ambiguity, um passende Handlungslogiken abzuleiten.
Core question: Welche Art von Unklarheit prägt diese Situation, und welche Reaktionslogik passt deshalb als nächster Schritt?
Analysis methodMethod form: Analysis method. Describes how this method is used in practice.LowComplexity: low. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.Workshop + asyncFormat: workshop or async. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.