Develops scenarios around critical uncertainties and tests which options stay robust even under change.
Core question: Which choices remain useful across plausible futures, and what signals should trigger adaptation?
Planning toolMethod form: Planning tool. Describes how this method is used in practice.HighComplexity: high. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.WorkshopFormat: workshop. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.
0.5-2 Tage
4-12
Details
Decision MakingCategory: Decision Making. Describes the method's domain of use.
Moves options, criteria, and risks toward a concrete result through "clarify the estimate object", "determine the optimistic value", and "derive the range, expected value, and risks".
Core question: What range and triangular expected value follow from a plausible optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic scenario?
Decision methodMethod form: Decision method. Describes how this method is used in practice.MediumComplexity: medium. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.Workshop + asyncFormat: workshop or async. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.
10-30 min je Item
1-8
Details
Decision MakingCategory: Decision Making. Describes the method's domain of use.
Moves options, criteria, and risks toward a concrete result through "collect three values", "explain the formula", and "document the planning assumption".
Core question: What PERT expected values and variances follow from O/M/P, and how are independent work packages aggregated correctly?
Decision methodMethod form: Decision method. Describes how this method is used in practice.MediumComplexity: medium. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.Workshop + asyncFormat: workshop or async. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.
15-45 min
1-8
Details
Systems ThinkingCategory: Systems Thinking. Describes the method's domain of use.
Structures a situation along Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity to derive matching logics of action.
Core question: Which VUCA dimension shapes the situation, and which response fits the evidenced mechanism?
Analysis methodMethod form: Analysis method. Describes how this method is used in practice.LowComplexity: low. Estimates preparation, facilitation effort, and method confidence needed.Workshop + asyncFormat: workshop or async. Shows whether the method works in a workshop, asynchronously, or both.