methodatlas
Systems Thinking

System Dynamics Simulation

Moves relationships, patterns, and leverage toward a concrete result through "define the question and time horizon", "define stocks and flows", and "run scenarios and vary assumptions".

Core question
Which dynamic effects and policy levers become visible when qualitative structure is calculated as quantitative model across the time horizon?
HighAsyncMehrere Tage bis Wochen
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Purpose

Helps clarify relationships, patterns, and leverage in concrete terms. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports.

How it works

The team follows the steps "define the question and time horizon", "define stocks and flows", "draw feedback loops", "estimate rates and initial values", "implement the model", and "run scenarios and vary assumptions". Each step is made visible. At the end, a simulation model and scenario reports are available so decisions, tests, or actions can continue directly.

Visual orientation

Method sketch for a quick mental model.

System Dynamics Simulation · Verhalten über Zeit testenStocks, Flows, Feedback und Annahmen quantifizieren, um Szenarien über einen Zeithorizont zu simulieren
System Dynamics SimulationDas Visual zeigt eine Simulationsfrage, ein Stock-and-Flow-Modell mit Raten und Delay sowie Szenariokurven über Zeit.Systemverhalten über Zeit simulierenAus Stocks, Flows und Raten entsteht ein Modell, das Policy- und Stressszenarien rechnerisch vergleichbar macht.Frage & HorizontWas soll über Zeit getestetwerden?Stock-and-Flow ModellAkquiseChurnStockKundenbasisRateConversionDelayWirkverzugSzenarienZeitBasisPolicy AStressAnnahmenquantifizierenFeedback und RatentestenVerhalten über Zeit

Flow

  1. 1Define the question and time horizon
  2. 2Define stocks and flows
  3. 3Draw feedback loops
  4. 4Estimate rates and initial values
  5. 5Implement the model
  6. 6Run scenarios and vary assumptions

The runsheet guides execution with 6 phases, timeboxes, 6 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.

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Ideal for

  • Public policy
  • Climate and energy models
  • Business model stress testing

Not good for

  • Fast operational decisions

Deep dive

In detail

System Dynamics Simulation goes back to Jay Forrester and combines qualitative models such as Causal Loop Diagrams with quantitative stocks, flows, and auxiliary variables. Tools such as Vensim, Stella, or Simantics calculate scenarios over time and enable policy tests. It is often used in sustainability, public policy, and strategy consulting.

Facilitation

Start with the stock-and-flow diagram. Use sensitivity analysis instead of emphasizing single-point forecasts. Keep assumptions explicit.

Output artifacts
SimulationsmodellSzenarienberichte
Tags
systems-thinkingdynamicssimulationanalysis

Sources

The Systems Thinker – The Systems Thinker -thesystemsthinker.comSystem - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
Artifact templates
System Dynamics Simulation Working TemplateCompact working template for System Dynamics Simulation with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
markdown

system-dynamics-simulation-working-template.md

Compact working template for System Dynamics Simulation with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.

System Dynamics Simulation Working Template

Goal

Quantitative simulation model built from stocks, flows, and feedback loops.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Execution

Short notes along the runsheet.

Output artifacts

  • Simulation model:
  • Scenario reports:

Assumptions and open questions

  • ...

Decision / next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

When to choose differently

Short decision aid for existing alternatives.

Stock and Flow Diagram

Statt System Dynamics Simulation, wenn ihr Bestände, Zu- und Abflüsse sowie deren Dynamik präzise modellieren wollt.

Similar methods

All methods
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph

Turns relationships, patterns, and leverage points into a tangible result by choosing a variable and time span, plotting the trend over time, and deriving cause hypotheses.

Systems Thinking
Stock and Flow Diagram

Turns relationships, patterns, and leverage points into a tangible result by naming stocks, identifying inflows and outflows, and deriving behavior.

Statt System Dynamics Simulation, wenn ihr Bestände, Zu- und Abflüsse sowie deren Dynamik präzise modellieren wollt.

Systems Thinking
Leverage Points

Moves relationships, patterns, and leverage toward a concrete result through "introduce the twelve leverage points", "collect planned actions", and "formulate a strategy across multiple levers".

Systems Thinking
System Archetypes

Moves relationships, patterns, and leverage toward a concrete result through "formulate current observations", "introduce archetype cards", and "discuss leverage and derive actions".

Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram

Turns relationships, patterns, and leverage points into a tangible result by collecting variables, drawing causal links, and discussing leverage points.

Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree

Clarifies connections, patterns, and leverage points by collecting undesirable effects, formulating causal links, and deriving interventions.