Purpose
The method helps clarify relationships, patterns, and leverage points in a concrete way. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a behavior over time graph, trend hypotheses, and key events.
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph
Turns relationships, patterns, and leverage points into a tangible result by choosing a variable and time span, plotting the trend over time, and deriving cause hypotheses.
How did the chosen variable behave over time, which patterns such as growth, decline, oscillation, or stagnation appeared, and which systemic causes sit behind the pattern?
LowWorkshop + async20-45 min
How it works
The team follows the steps: choose the variable and time span, plot the trend over time, mark key events, discuss patterns and turning points, and derive cause hypotheses. Each step is captured visibly. At the end, a behavior over time graph, trend hypotheses, and key events are available so decisions, tests, or actions can follow directly.
Visual orientation
Method sketch for a quick mental model.
Flow
- 1Choose the variable and time span
- 2Plot the trend over time
- 3Mark key events
- 4Discuss patterns and turning points
- 5Derive cause hypotheses
The runsheet guides execution with 5 phases, timeboxes, 5 pitfalls, and clear stop criteria.
Open runsheetIdeal for
- Systems thinking
- Problem framing
- Trend reflection
Not good for
- One-off events without a trend
- Exact statistical modeling
Deep dive
In detail
Behavior Over Time Graphs make change visible before people argue about causes. A relevant variable is drawn as a curve over time, including notable events or interventions. That helps teams distinguish whether a problem is stable, escalating, cyclical, or responding with delay. The curve acts as a bridge to deeper system models such as causal loops or stock-and-flow diagrams.
Facilitation
Prepare axes, a time span, and a clear variable. Have people sketch separately first and then compare the curves, because differences often reveal important assumptions. Mark events and interventions without jumping into solution discussions too early.
Output artifacts
Behavior Over Time GraphTrend HypothesesKey Events
Artifact templates
Behavior Over Time Graph Working TemplateCompact working template for Behavior Over Time Graph with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.markdown
Behavior Over Time Graph Working TemplateCompact working template for Behavior Over Time Graph with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
markdownbehavior-over-time-graph-working-template.md
Compact working template for Behavior Over Time Graph with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
Behavior Over Time Graph Working Template
Goal
Visualizes how a relevant variable changes over time and which patterns may lie beneath it.
Context
When and for what do we use this method?
Input
Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?
Execution
Short notes along the runsheet.
Output artifacts
- Behavior Over Time Graph:
- Trend Hypotheses:
- Key Events:
Assumptions and open questions
- ...
Decision / Next step
Owner, date, and success signal.
When to choose differently
Short decision aid for existing alternatives.
Causal Loop Diagram
Statt Behavior Over Time Graph, wenn nicht nur ein Verlauf, sondern die dahinterliegenden Rückkopplungen sichtbar werden sollen.
Similar methods
All methodsSystems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram
Turns relationships, patterns, and leverage points into a tangible result by collecting variables, drawing causal links, and discussing leverage points.
Statt Behavior Over Time Graph, wenn nicht nur ein Verlauf, sondern die dahinterliegenden Rückkopplungen sichtbar werden sollen.
Systems Thinking
Stock and Flow Diagram
Turns relationships, patterns, and leverage points into a tangible result by naming stocks, identifying inflows and outflows, and deriving behavior.
Systems Thinking
System Archetypes
Moves relationships, patterns, and leverage toward a concrete result through "formulate current observations", "introduce archetype cards", and "discuss leverage and derive actions".
Systems Thinking
System Dynamics Simulation
Moves relationships, patterns, and leverage toward a concrete result through "define the question and time horizon", "define stocks and flows", and "run scenarios and vary assumptions".
Systems Thinking
Rich Picture
Turns relationships, patterns, and leverage points into a tangible result by selecting a situation, drawing actors and issues, and discussing insights.
Systems Thinking
Leverage Points
Moves relationships, patterns, and leverage toward a concrete result through "introduce the twelve leverage points", "collect planned actions", and "formulate a strategy across multiple levers".