Move from an assessed level of environmental uncertainty through your own market position to robust strategy options for several future scenarios.
Robust strategy options checked against several plausible future scenarios and your own market position.
You can decide which strategy option is robust enough across several future scenarios to be pursued.
Carry the chosen strategy option into the roadmap and regularly re-check the underlying scenario assumptions.
Which VUCA dimension shapes the situation, and which response fits the evidenced mechanism?
The VUCA profile shows what kind of uncertainty is actually present and prevents a blanket reaction to perceived rather than real uncertainty.
The assessed uncertainty profile determines how precisely your own market position must be analyzed.
How does user need connect to components, and how evolved are they?
The Wardley map shows which components are still emerging and which are already commodity before competitive forces are assessed.
The mapped position provides the basis for a focused assessment of the relevant competitive forces.
Which industry forces determine profitability, and where can we position effectively?
Five forces analysis makes visible which external forces put the most pressure on your own position.
The assessed forces feed as assumptions into several possible future scenarios.
Which choices remain useful across plausible futures, and what signals should trigger adaptation?
Scenario planning tests strategy options against several possible futures instead of a single forecast, making them more robust.
The robust strategy options are carried into the next strategy or investment decision.
Artifacts stay collapsed until you actually need them.
Plan VUCA Scan around its domain steps and the concrete decision question.
# VUCA Scan: Worksheet
## Question
To be confirmed
## Desired outcome
To be confirmed
## Scope
Establish and review the practice
Time: 45–75 minutes
Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.
## Preparation for this scope
### Method setup
- **Materials:** Environmental signals and time series, decision and exposure, system and stakeholder knowledge, shared workspace, source links, and decision log.
- **Roles:** Strategy/Risk · domain experts · decision owner
- **Advance information:** Collect Environmental signals and time series, decision and exposure, system and stakeholder knowledge in advance and mark open assumptions.
- **Overall time needed:** 45–75 minutes
- **Setup:** Prepare diagnose a situation by rate of change, information gap, system interdependence, and missing interpretive model visibly and calibrate assessment terms before starting.
### Prepare for the work steps
#### Situation: Situation
- Environmental signals and time series
- decision and exposure
- system and stakeholder knowledge
#### Diagnose: Diagnose
- situation brief
- decision and exposure
- system and stakeholder knowledge
#### Response: Response
- VUCA diagnosis
- decision and exposure
- system and stakeholder knowledge
#### Monitor: Monitor
- response set
- decision and exposure
- system and stakeholder knowledge
## VUCA response map
| Subject | Volatility information to record | Uncertainty information to record | Complexity information to record | Ambiguity information to record |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| VUCA response map | | | | |
- **VUCA response map:** Worked example
Enter only real input, sources, and decisions.
[U.S. Army Heritage and Education Center: VUCA](https://usawc.libanswers.com/ahec/faq/84869)
## Situation: Situation
Expected artifact: situation brief
situation brief · source · uncertainty · next decision
Entry:
...
- [ ] Is exposure concrete?
## Diagnose: Diagnose
Expected artifact: VUCA diagnosis
VUCA diagnosis · source · uncertainty · next decision
Entry:
...
- [ ] Is every classification mechanistically justified?
## Response: Response
Expected artifact: response set
response set · source · uncertainty · next decision
Entry:
...
- [ ] Does response fit the dimension?
## Monitor: Monitor
Expected artifact: monitoring plan
monitoring plan · source · uncertainty · next decision
Entry:
...
- [ ] Does a signpost trigger a concrete adaptation?
## Open questions and next steps
...
Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/vuca-scan/run-sheet
Prepare the decision, source evidence and next review.
# Wardley Mapping: Worksheet
## Question
To be confirmed
## Desired outcome
To be confirmed
## Scope
Run the method
Time: See catalog planning range; no universal duration.
Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.
## Preparation for this scope
### Method setup
- **Materials:** Shared visual workspace, source evidence, and an agreed decision question.
- **Roles:** Mapper, domain experts, users or service owners, strategy decision-maker.
- **Advance information:** Collect existing data, examples, constraints and relevant stakeholder perspectives.
- **Overall time needed:** 2–4 h for one strategic domain; gather evidence and review separately.
- **Setup:** State the user, user need and strategic purpose before drawing capabilities. Trace dependencies from user need down through capabilities; label links. Place components on visibility and evolution axes using evidence, not aspiration. Discuss environmental climate and applicable doctrine against map positions. Choose small strategic plays, assumptions, owners and signals to revisit.
### Prepare for the work steps
#### Purpose: State purpose and user need
- Strategic question, beneficiaries and users
#### Chain: Draw value chain and dependencies
- Purpose and people who know the landscape
#### Evolution: Place visibility and evolution
- Value chain, market signals and technical evidence
#### Plays: Derive climate, doctrine and plays
- Map, relevant market forces and organizational capabilities
## Wardley map: components and evolution
| Scenario | User need | Component | Dependency | Evolution | Next question |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Component 1 | | | | | |
- **Component 1:** Record an observation or example for this row.
Evolution positions are hypotheses until supported by market evidence.
[Introduction · Learn Wardley Mapping](https://learnwardleymapping.com/introduction/)
## Purpose: State purpose and user need
Expected artifact: Purpose statement
Purpose statement
Entry:
...
- [ ] Is the need stated from the user’s perspective?
## Chain: Draw value chain and dependencies
Expected artifact: Labelled value chain
Labelled value chain
Entry:
...
- [ ] Is each component needed for the user need?
## Evolution: Place visibility and evolution
Expected artifact: Wardley Map with justified positions
Wardley Map with justified positions
Entry:
...
- [ ] Does evidence support evolution rather than aspiration?
## Plays: Derive climate, doctrine and plays
Expected artifact: Strategic options with review signal
Strategic options with review signal
Entry:
...
- [ ] Does each play lead to a testable action?
## Open questions and next steps
...
Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/wardley-mapping/run-sheet
Define the industry by product, customer group, geography and value-chain level.
# Porter Five Forces: Worksheet
## Question
To be confirmed
## Desired outcome
To be confirmed
## Scope
Complete workflow
Time: 2–4 hours plus market and industry research
Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.
## Preparation for this scope
### Method setup
- **Materials:** Industry definition, customer and supplier data, competitor list, cost and price logic, and source register.
- **Roles:** Strategy owner, market and finance expertise, sales or procurement perspective, and research owner.
- **Advance information:** Offer, customer group, geography, value-chain level, competitors, substitutes and suppliers.
- **Overall time needed:** 2–4 hours plus market and industry research
- **Setup:** Prepare five force areas; capture mechanism, evidence, trend and implication for every finding.
### Prepare for the work steps
#### Industry: Define the industry
- Offer and customer group
- Geography and value-chain level
#### Forces: Investigate five forces
- Industry definition
- Market and company data
#### Dynamics: Assess interactions
- Force profiles
- Technology and regulatory change
#### Options: Derive positioning options
- Structural system view
- Capabilities and goals
#### Monitor: Monitor assumptions
- Option portfolio
- Critical assumptions
## Porter Five Forces
### New entrants
Which entry barriers and expected responses shape entry?
...
### Supplier power
How concentrated, differentiated and replaceable are key inputs?
...
### Buyer power
How strongly do buyers aggregate, compare and switch?
...
### Substitutes
Which different solutions meet the same customer need?
...
### Rivalry
How intensely do incumbents compete, and why?
...
[Harvard Business School: The Five Forces](https://www.isc.hbs.edu/strategy/business-strategy/Pages/the-five-forces.aspx)
## Industry: Define the industry
Expected artifact: Industry definition
In scope, out of scope and rationale
Entry:
...
- [ ] Does the boundary identify actors competing for the same value pool?
## Forces: Investigate five forces
Expected artifact: Five force profiles
Mechanism, evidence, trend and affected value
Entry:
...
- [ ] Is every assessment explained by a mechanism?
- [ ] Are substitutes defined from the customer perspective?
## Dynamics: Assess interactions
Expected artifact: Dynamic industry map
Interaction, direction and horizon
Entry:
...
- [ ] Does the integrated view reveal more than separate labels?
## Options: Derive positioning options
Expected artifact: Option portfolio
Option, force, prerequisite and risk
Entry:
...
- [ ] Does each option address an evidenced mechanism?
- [ ] Are buyer, supplier and rival reactions considered?
## Monitor: Monitor assumptions
Expected artifact: Monitoring plan
Assumption, signal, source, owner and review
Entry:
...
- [ ] Could the signal invalidate a strategic option?
## Open questions and next steps
...
Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/porter-five-forces/run-sheet
Plan a session or initiative to match the actual scope of work.
# Scenario Planning: Worksheet
## Question
To be confirmed
## Desired outcome
To be confirmed
## Scope
Prepare the full method
Time: Several working sessions across days; research and stakeholder review are separate.
Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.
## Preparation for this scope
### Method setup
- **Materials:** Decision brief, evidence on driving forces, uncertainty notes, workshop materials and an owner for signposts.
- **Roles:** Strategy owner · domain experts · facilitator · decision makers able to act on findings.
- **Advance information:** Choose materials, data access and participants to fit the research or decision question.
- **Overall time needed:** Several working sessions across days; research and stakeholder review are separate.
- **Setup:** Open the method-specific structure. Fictional examples are for orientation only; keep the blank worksheet separate from actual findings.
### Prepare for the work steps
#### Question: Frame the decision and horizon
- Choose a focal strategic decision, horizon, scope and participants with different expertise.
- Decision brief, evidence on driving forces, uncertainty notes, workshop materials and an owner for signposts.
#### Drivers: Identify drivers and uncertainties
- Bounded focal question
- Decision brief, evidence on driving forces, uncertainty notes, workshop materials and an owner for signposts.
#### Scenarios: Construct distinct scenarios
- Drivers and critical uncertainties
- Decision brief, evidence on driving forces, uncertainty notes, workshop materials and an owner for signposts.
#### Options: Stress-test options and signposts
- Contrasting scenarios
- Decision brief, evidence on driving forces, uncertainty notes, workshop materials and an owner for signposts.
## Scenario Planning working record
### Decision and horizon
Which choice and future period are being explored?
...
### Critical uncertainties
Which sourced uncertainties could change the choice?
...
### Contrasting futures
What internally coherent conditions challenge the plan?
...
### Robust response
Which action works across futures and what signal prompts review?
...
Blank worksheet: prompts only; do not copy example data.
[Scenario Development | RAND](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1200/RAND_RR1286/RAND_RR1286.pdf)
## Question: Frame the decision and horizon
Expected artifact: Bounded focal question
Bounded focal question
Entry:
...
- [ ] Does the question connect to action?
## Drivers: Identify drivers and uncertainties
Expected artifact: Drivers and critical uncertainties
Drivers and critical uncertainties
Entry:
...
- [ ] Are uncertainties decision-relevant?
## Scenarios: Construct distinct scenarios
Expected artifact: Contrasting scenarios
Contrasting scenarios
Entry:
...
- [ ] Does each scenario challenge the plan?
## Options: Stress-test options and signposts
Expected artifact: Robust actions and signposts
Robust actions and signposts
Entry:
...
- [ ] Can the organization act when a signpost changes?
## Open questions and next steps
...
Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/scenario-planning/run-sheet