Session Brief: Behavior Over Time Graph

Goal

Artifact: Behavior Over Time Graph

Working Question

How did the chosen variable behave over time, which patterns such as growth, decline, oscillation, or stagnation appeared, and which systemic causes sit behind the pattern?

Context

Communicate the variable and time window in advance; share known data points; note that curves are hypotheses about behavior, not claims of truth.

Setup

• Format: Method session
• Duration: 45-90 min for one variable, separate iterations for multiple variables
• Mode: Workshop or async
• Participants: One facilitator who moderates curves and guides the discussion; 3-8 participants with different perspectives on the variable; one scribe who documents events and assumptions.
• Owner: One facilitator who moderates curves and guides the discussion
• Participation mode: Team round, shared work and alignment
• Outcome logic: Finish artifact

Participation Logic

Use the session for shared understanding. Contributions are collected visibly, assumptions are aligned, and open differences remain traceable in the artifact.

Outcome Logic

The session works directly toward Behavior Over Time Graph. After the session, the artifact should be shareable, reviewable, or reusable.

Input

Whiteboard or shared board with a coordinate system (X-axis time, Y-axis variable); marker pens; available data points as reference; sticky notes for events and assumptions.

Preparation

Make the coordinate system clearly visible. Label the X-axis with time units suited to the variable. Label the Y-axis with variable and unit. Instruction: first draw an individual curve in silence on paper, then create a shared curve at the board. Mark events as stickies at the relevant time.

Agenda

1. 0-10 min (10 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Clarify the variable and time window. The facilitator introduces the diagram logic and shows typical patterns such as linear, exponential, S-curve, oscillating, or crash. Label the Y-axis with the variable and unit, and the X-axis with the time window. Hint: If the variable is too abstract, for example 'culture', the curve becomes arbitrary. Operationalize it: what would be measured to make the culture visible? Agree on a measurable proxy. Output: Behavior Over Time Graph

2. 10-20 min (10 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Solo curve: each person draws their interpretation of the variable over the time window on paper. Mark events that shaped the curve as notes. Hint: The solo phase prevents groupthink. Anyone who goes to the board right away starts to dominate the curve. Keep silence. For large groups, allow 2 extra minutes. Output: Trend Hypotheses

3. 20-45 min (25 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Shared curve: participants transfer their solo curves to the common diagram. If they diverge, discuss which data points and assumptions differ. Make either a consensus curve or multiple hypothesis curves visible. Hint: Divergence is not a problem, it is gold. If everyone draws the same curve, either diversity is missing or the data are too clear. If there is disagreement, leave both curves visible and decide with data or tests. Output: Key Events

4. 45-65 min (20 min) Owner: Facilitator Action: Mark events and causes: add stickies to turning points, jumps, and bends. Which events correlate, and which causal hypotheses exist? Multiple hypotheses per turning point are allowed. Hint: Correlation is not causality. Mark hypotheses explicitly as hypotheses. If only one explanation appears per turning point, there are probably blind spots. Output: Behavior Over Time Graph

5. 65-90 min (25 min) Owner: Owner Action: Systemic reading: which feedback loops or structures explain the pattern. Connect to Causal Loop or System Archetypes. Derive leverage points or hypotheses for the next steps. Hint: The method does not end with the diagram. Without a reading, BOTG remains a line drawing. Build the bridge to action: which hypothesis would we test to change the curve? Output: Trend Hypotheses

6. Publish artifact (10 min) Owner: Owner Action: Check the artifact for completeness, define location, set version or status, and name review recipients. Output: Behavior Over Time Graph

Closeout

• Update result artifact: Behavior Over Time Graph
• Define location, version, and review recipients.
• Define owner, next step, and review date.

Behavior Over Time Graph: Behavior Over Time Graph

Working Question

How did the chosen variable behave over time, which patterns such as growth, decline, oscillation, or stagnation appeared, and which systemic causes sit behind the pattern?

Context

Communicate the variable and time window in advance; share known data points; note that curves are hypotheses about behavior, not claims of truth.

Participants

• Owner: One facilitator who moderates curves and guides the discussion
• Participants: One facilitator who moderates curves and guides the discussion; 3-8 participants with different perspectives on the variable; one scribe who documents events and assumptions.

Input

Whiteboard or shared board with a coordinate system (X-axis time, Y-axis variable); marker pens; available data points as reference; sticky notes for events and assumptions.

Template

Behavior Over Time Graph Working Template

Goal

Visualizes how a relevant variable changes over time and which patterns may lie beneath it.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Execution

Short notes along the runsheet.

Output artifacts

• Behavior Over Time Graph:
• Trend Hypotheses:
• Key Events:

Assumptions and open questions

• ...

Decision / Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

Completion Check

• Behavior Over Time Graph is complete enough for review:
• Location:
• Version / status:
• Review by:
• Next step:

Next Step

• Review result
• Mark open questions
• Schedule review or decision