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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Growth Growth Experiment |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When growth ideas surface quickly, the temptation to build immediately instead of learning is high. A Growth Experiment frames an assumption so target group, lever, and measurement are clear before the first deployment. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-5 Tage | 1-2 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Experiment card, Result summary, Next bet |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | MarketingGrowthExperimentsLearning |
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