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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 20–45 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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