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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-45 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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