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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations Root Cause Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For a problem with several suspected causes, the method builds a causal structure instead of a mere list. It makes visible how causes connect and where the strongest points of leverage lie. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Cause Tree, Evidence Notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Root causeTreeIncidentQuality |
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