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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | SensemakingDecisionRationale |
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