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| Criterion | ![]() Decision Making Wideband Delphi | ![]() Operations MORT Analysis | ![]() Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |
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