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Criterion
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration of a branching impact map with a Why goal at the root, actor circles, How behavior changes and What options.
Product Strategy
Impact Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-4 h or multiple rounds45-90 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
4-12 Experten3-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesImpact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery OptionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationExpertsForecasting
OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping