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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-3 h | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |
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