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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Agile Bucket System |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 60-120 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |
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