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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile Bucket System |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |
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