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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tags1 shared | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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