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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 60-120 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 3-10 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy |
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