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| Criterion | ![]() Systems Thinking VUCA Scan | ![]() Systems Thinking Futures Wheel | ![]() Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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