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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting |
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