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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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