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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-10 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | EstimationExpertsForecasting |
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