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| Criterion | ![]() Decision Making Three-Point Estimation | ![]() Systems Thinking Systems Mapping | ![]() Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Systems Mapping arranges elements, relationships, and boundaries so a complex field becomes legible at a glance. The overview stabilizes the overall picture before detail work or steering begins. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | System Map, Dependencies, Leverage Points | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Systems thinkingMappingBoundariesChange | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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