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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLow
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item0.5-2 Tage45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1-84-122-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesScenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem