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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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