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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Argument Mapping
Decision Making
Argument Mapping
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on.
Complexitysame
MediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item15-45 min1-3 h
Participantssame
1-81-81-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesArgument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
SensemakingDecisionRationale
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Red Teaming method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Red Teaming
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Cynefin Workshop.
Decision Making
Cynefin Workshop
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method