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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-75 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Test Matrix, Test Plan | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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