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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-75 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Test Matrix, Test Plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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