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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-60 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-10 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |
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