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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Gemba Walk |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-120 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Observation Notes, Improvement Ideas | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanObservationProcessOperations | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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