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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item60-120 min1-2 h
Participantsdifferent
1-83-102-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesFutures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of VUCA Scan with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
VUCA Scan
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud