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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Growth Funnel Analysis |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When many visitors or users drop off along the way, the reason behind the number often stays hidden. Funnel Analysis exposes these transitions and makes visible exactly where the path collapses. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-5 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Funnel report, Drop-off analysis, Optimization hypotheses | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | AnalyticsConversionGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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