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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ChangeDecisionStrategy |
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