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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Value Chain Map, Lever List |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis |
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