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| Criterion | ![]() Decision Making Three-Point Estimation | ![]() Decision Making Delphi Method | ![]() Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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